Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WAS GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVED EAST OVER THE MTNS AND OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE IN UPSTATE SC. RAINFALL RATES WERE ALSO GENERALLY ON A
DECREASING TREND. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED TO THE LATEST OBS. THE
BREAKUP OF THE PRECIP SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE TO THE EAST AS IT MOVES
OVER THE PIEDMONT MIGHT NOT BE THAT GREAT AS LONG AS CAPE IS
GENERALLY UNDER 1000 J/KG. SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED EVEN AS OVERALL
SHRA REMAINING WIDESPREAD AND/OR SLOWLY EXPANDING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS SHIFTING SOUTH OF I-85 AND THE WRN NC MTNS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE OVER THOSE AREAS
EVEN AS HIGH WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELSEWHERE. THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL
SEE SOME SHRA...BUT THE THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SVR STORM OVER THE SRN UPSTATE/NE GA...
BUT AGAIN...CHC IS QUITE LOW. EXPECT THE SHRA TO DIMINISH THRU THE
EVENING AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLY FLOW...SHRA WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLY FLOW REMAIN OVER THE AREA THU AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE MOVES THRU. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE SHRA EXPAND OVER THE
WRN CWFA THRU THE MORNING. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT TRYING TO PICK ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER IS TRICKY. THAT
SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WRN CWFA WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW IS BEST. IN FACT...I-77 CORRIDOR WILL AGAIN SEE LESS COVERAGE
THAN THE REST OF THE CWFA...AND COULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WENT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT AS LOW AS
PREVIOUS DAYS SINCE ERN AND POSSIBLY SRN SECTIONS SHUD WARM WITH
LESS RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...MOIST PATTERN CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK WITH
BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINING SOME DEGREE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR
REGION. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACRS THE MID-SOUTH
DESPITE FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG WITH NOT
MUCH OF A THERMAL GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SO ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT. A MODEST UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IN 925-850MB WINDS EXISTS THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS VEER TO A MORE WLY DIRECTION SATURDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.
THIS OCCURS AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH 1000-500MB RH AS WELL AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY NEAR 2 INCHES. LIFT
HOWEVER IS REALLY CONCENTRATED JUST ABOVE THE SFC SO POPS WILL MAINLY
FOLLOW DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. CAPE VALUES NEAR CLIMO. OVERALL
FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK AND STORM MOTION SLOW. HEAVY RAIN THUS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TSTMS DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE UPSLOPING IS MOST SIGNIFICANT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST END OF
OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER SAT AFTN VS FRIDAY NEAR
THE TENN BORDER GIVEN THE VEERING LLVL WINDS...BUT ELSEWHERE THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON
COVERAGE AND THUS POPS ARE LOWER SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD BUT LOWS WILL BE
KEPT WARMER BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH DOMINANT IN THE PATTERN TO
START THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GFS/EC IN
AGREEMENT ON INITIALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW GIVING WAY TO AN ERN CONUS
TROUGH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD AHEAD OF IT. AS ALSO
NOTED ON YESTERDAY MORNING/S RUNS...GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN
AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH THAN THE EC THOUGH BY MIDWEEK IT CATCHES UP TO
THE EC SO TO SPEAK. THE TROUGH DOES NOT AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THE
FRONT WILL FULLY DEPART THE AREA...PERHAPS LINGERING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THUS REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH MUTED DIURNAL TEMP RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS PRECIP
HAS REMAINED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST OF VFR THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
VCSH AND FEW025 TO INDICATE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS. TOOK THE BOLD STEP
OF REMOVING TSRA AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO CG OR IC STRIKES ALL DAY OVER
NC. IN FACT...THEY MAY NOT EVEN SEE AN SHRA...BUT CHC NOT LOW ENUF
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE. SHUD BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THERE IS A LOW CHC OF IFR CIGS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW. SHUD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUICK RISE TO VFR THRU THE MORNING.
EXPECT SLY WINDS THRU DAYBREAK BECOMING SWLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...OFF AND ON RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA WILL CONTINUE THRU MID
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING. SHRA WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT VCTS MENTION OVER ALL BUT
KHKY WHERE CHC IS VERY LOW. KAND HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY TSRA
BUT STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SHUD BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLY FLOW.
SHUD BE AT LEAST MVFR WITH A CHC OF IFR. WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW RISE
TO VFR BY NOON. SLY WIND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SWLY WIND
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS OF RECENT
RAINFALL AND IN MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  97%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     MED   68%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  90%     MED   64%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%     MED   68%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
249 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING. SLOW MOVING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN
THREAT AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E CAESARS HEAD        35.11N 82.55W
08/07/2013                   GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            RIVER FALLS ROAD AND DEVILS FORK RD FLOODED BY LOCAL
            STREAMS

&&

PT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     FLOOD            2 S HENDERSONVILLE      35.30N 82.46W
08/07/2013                   HENDERSON          NC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE MUD CREEK GAGE PASSED FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET.

&&

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLOOD            5 E BREVARD             35.24N 82.64W
08/07/2013                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE LITTLE RIVER STREAM GAGE NEAR PENROSE HAS REACHED
            FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET.

&&

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TUXEDO                  35.23N 82.43W
08/07/2013                   HENDERSON          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE AFTER QUICK RISE IN GREEN RIVER

&&

VISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W ANDERSON            34.52N 82.66W
08/07/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAULDIN ST AND PARK DRIVE NEAR LINLEY PARK UNDERWATER DUE
            TO POOR DRAINAGE

&&

VISIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

SCZ002-005-010-072300-
ANDERSON-GREATER PICKENS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
613 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT EASTERN PICKENS AND NORTHERN ANDERSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EASLEY...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PICKENS...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  POWDERSVILLE...
  EASLEY...

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3473 8276 3498 8271 3493 8252 3488 8249
      3484 8248 3483 8249 3483 8248 3481 8248
      3472 8253 3470 8266

ARK