Alert archive / South Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

August 6, 2013Anderson County, Oconee County, Pickens County, South Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Aug 6, 2013, 9:40 PM EDT for Anderson County, Oconee County, Pickens County, South Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 11 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Aug 6, 2013, 9:40 PM EDT (01:40 UTC)
Expired
Aug 7, 2013, 12:30 AM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Anderson County, SC, Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Aug 6, 10:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Wnw Norris, SC*** 1 FATAL *** A CAR WAS SWEPT AWAY BY FLOOD WATERS ON SILVER CREEK ROAD. THE CAR AND OCCUPANT WERE FOUND SEPARATELY DOWNSTREAM AND THE OCCUPANT WAS KILLED. THE CAR WAS DESTROYED. TWO OTHER CARS WERE SWEPT AWAY AT THIS SAME LOCATION WITH FOUR TOTAL OCCUPANTS
Aug 6, 10:40 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD3 Wsw Six Mile, SCA BRIDGE ON JONES MILL ROAD IS COVERED WITH WATER.
Aug 6, 10:40 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD5 Wnw Norris, SCTHE FURMAN L. SMITH MEMORIAL HIGHWAY WAS COVERED IN WATER 40 FEET WIDE...NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH BLUE BIRD LANE. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Aug 6, 10:56 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD5 Nw Central, SC6 MILE CREEK FLOODS JONES MILL ROAD
Aug 6, 11:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD5 N Clemson, SCTWITTER PICTURE OF BROWNING ROAD FLOODED BY A STREAM...PROBABLY TODD CREEK.
Aug 6, 11:00 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.834 W Clemson, SCTHE OCONEE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT NEAR CLEMSON HAD 3.83 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ABOUT 2 AND A HALF HOURS. RAIN BEGAN AT 824 PM AND JUST SPRINKLING AROUND 11 PM.
Aug 6, 11:10 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Wnw Norris, SCVEHICLE REPORTED IN WATER ON SILVER CREEK ROAD...TWO PEOPLE IN THE FLOOD WATER NEAR THE VEHICLE. FLOODING LIKELY NEAR THE CAMP CREEK BRIDGE.
Aug 6, 11:30 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 W Norris, SCTODD CREEK ROAD WASHED OUT NEAR THE TODD CREEK BRIDGE...AREA LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH SUNRISE ROAD.
Aug 6, 11:34 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 W Norris, SCTODDS CREEK WASHED OUT SUNRISE RD
Aug 6, 11:50 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Wsw Pickens, SCPOSSIBLE SWIFT WATER RESCUE NEAR THE PICKENS COUNTY FLEA MARKET...JOCKEY LOT...NEAR HIGHWAY 183.
Aug 7, 12:00 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Nne Norris, SCTWELVE MILE CREEK REACHED 10.18 FEET AT MIDNIGHT. WAS 9.86 FEET AT 1145 PM AND REACHED THE FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 11 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 35 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2013-08-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 940 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2013-08-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -29 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
940 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1104 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

443 
WGUS52 KGSP 070140
FFWGSP
SCC007-073-077-070430-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0076.130807T0140Z-130807T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
  WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT

* AT 936 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL 
ANDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES 
INDICATE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 
2.5 INCHES AN HOUR. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES 
BETWEEN CLEMSON TO SIX MILE. THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED 
TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RUNOFF AND RAINFALL 
WITHIN THE BASINS OF TWELVE MILE CREEK AND EIGHTEEN MILE CREEK. 
THESE CREEKS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY 
RISING WATER WITH VERY FAST FLOW.

* EIGHTEEN MILE CREEK AND ITS TRIBUTARIES NEAR CLEMSON MAY FLOOD IN 
LOW LYING AREAS ESPECIALLY ON SHAFTSBURY AND ASHLEY ROADS. IN 
ADDITION...DEEP STANDING WATER ON ROADS IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 
ALONG 18 MILE CREEK NEAR THE PENDLETON AND US 76 LEADING INTO 
CLEMSON. SHANKLIN CREEK MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG 
HARRISON... SARRAR AND CHERRY STREETS. NEAR LIBERTY...TWELVE MILE 
CREEK MAY FLOOD RIGGINS BRIDGE ROAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 8269 3457 8273 3454 8286 3487 8297

$$

NED
2 follow-up statements
212 
WGUS72 KGSP 070229
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

SCC007-073-077-070430-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-130807T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANDERSON SC-OCONEE SC-PICKENS SC-
1029 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS...
EAST CENTRAL OCONEE AND WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM
EDT...

AT 1024 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN NORRIS AND PICKENS. RADAR RAINFALL 
ESTIMATES INDICATE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES AN HOUR. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4 
INCHES BETWEEN CLEMSON TO SIX MILE...TO NEAR PICKENS. THE BAND OF 
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...RESULTING IN VERY 
HEAVY RUNOFF AND RAINFALL WITHIN THE BASINS OF TWELVE MILE CREEK AND 
EIGHTEEN MILE CREEK. THESE CREEKS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND 
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY RISING WATER WITH VERY FAST FLOW.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY ON TIGER...CROSSWELL 
SCHOOL...MCCONNELL...BURNS...BRUSHY CREEK AND MCALLISTER ROADS IN 
PICKENS. WOLF CREEK MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS ESPECIALLY ON 
PENDLETON STREET OR HIGHWAY 178. TOWN CREEK MAY FLOOD PARTS OF SHADY 
GROVE ROAD...AND PERHAPS THE PICKENS JOCKEY LOT ALONG TWELVE MILE 
CREEK. WEST OF LIBERTY...TWELVE MILE CREEK MAY FLOOD RIGGINS BRIDGE 
ROAD. NEAR CLEMSON...EIGHTEEN MILE CREEK AND ITS TRIBUTARIES MAY 
FLOOD IN LOW LYING AREAS ESPECIALLY ON SHAFTSBURY AND ASHLEY ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 8269 3457 8273 3454 8286 3487 8297

$$

NED
269 
WGUS72 KGSP 070355
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1155 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

SCC073-070357-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-130807T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OCONEE SC-
1155 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8286 3465 8283 3487 8291 3491 8269
      3457 8273

$$

SCC007-077-070430-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-130807T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANDERSON SC-PICKENS SC-
1155 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND
WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1142 PM EDT...COUNTY OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS REPORTED THAT FLASH 
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN THE AREAS OF PICKENS...SIX 
MILE...LIBERTY...AND NORRIS IN PICKENS COUNTY. RADAR RAINFALL 
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS 
SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS SINCE 930 PM. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 1 AM...RESULTING IN LIGHT 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...SEVERAL TRIBUTARIES TO TWELVE MILE 
CREEK HAVE RESULTED IN FLOODING OF ROADS AND BRIDGES IN THE SIX 
MILE...LIBERTY...AND PICKENS AREAS. INTO THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS...AREAS ALONG TWELVE MILE CREEK NEAR NORRIS AND CENTRAL WILL 
LIKELY SEE RAPIDLY RISING WATER...WITH AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. IN 
ADDITION...THE EIGHTEEN MILE CREEK BASIN ALSO EXPERIENCED TWO TO 
THREE INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS ALONG EIGHTEEN MILE CREEK FROM NORRIS TO 
PENDLETON WILL LIKELY SEE RAPIDLY RISING WATER INTO THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CLEMSON...PICKENS...CENTRAL...NORRIS...PENDLETON AND SANDY SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8286 3465 8283 3487 8291 3491 8269
      3457 8273

$$

NED

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 6, 7:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 7:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM...SOLID SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NC MTNS. ALTHOUGH CELLS HAVE NOT BEEN
ESPECIALLY DEEP...SLOW MOVEMENT IS RESULTING IN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. AS THE DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE COMMENCES...COVERAGE IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE IN THE PIEDMONT...BUT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WE ARE MONITORING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS FOR A POTENTIAL SHORT FUSE FFA FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE.

AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME PEAKS OF SUN/
APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION...NAMELY THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE VERY NEAR TERM FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC THAN RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT...SO POPS HAVE
BEEN SCALED BACK 10-15 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...REACHING A
NADIR AT AROUND 00Z. IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN NC
MTNS WHERE WARMING HAS OCCURRED AND MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED. CONVECTION ALLOWING MDLS SHOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THRU THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SLIDES SE
INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE WRN UPSTATE/NE GA. WITH CONVECTION
ALREADY ONGOING...HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POP OVER THESE AREAS WITH
LOWER...BUT STILL SCT POP...OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AND THE NC
PIEDMONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOWER. DCAPE IS INCREASING OVER THE
UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND THERE IS WEAK WIND SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE
WRN CWFA. THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER THE
UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE CONVECTION SHUD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SHRA ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE...STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER DIVERGENCE RETURN FROM THE WEST. CANNOT SAY
THAT WE WILL SEE A REPEAT OF TUE MORN. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SHRA ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING ECHOES
SOMEWHERE OVER THE WRN CWFA.

GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WED AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH
GOOD SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE
MTNS AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
AGAIN HAVE THE HIGHEST POP OVER THE WRN CWFA DECREASING TO CHC POP
OVER THE EAST. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY TUESDAY...SFC RIDGE INITIALLY CENTERED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO A CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH POSITION
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE CWFA REMAINING ON THE WRN
FRINGE OF THE HIGH...AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN POSITION
OF THE HIGH EARLIER IN THE PERIOD ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT IT DIMINISHES BY FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW SEEN AT 500MB THRU THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
PASSING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH.

MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG FORCING AND SLOW MEAN LAYER FLOW...MULTICELL TSTMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. HAVE FAVORED QPF BLENDS
WEIGHTED TOWARD WETTER GUIDANCE...THOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER ACCUMS
CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. NAM SHOWS LOWER CAPE VALUES
AND DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS ON FRI...AND IT PRODUCES LOWER QPF
AS A RESULT. GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS BETTER CAPE FRI AND
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER QPF. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL STILL REFLECT A
DIURNAL PEAK IN CONVECTION THOUGH SOME CHANCE IS MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LLVL FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

MOIST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD...LIMITING DIURNAL TEMP RANGE. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY
THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A WEAKENING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. 06Z GFS AND
00Z EC INITIALLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL. THE EC IS HOWEVER SOMEWHAT SLOWER
IN AMPLIFYING THE ERN TROUGH...BUT EVENTUALLY ITS DEPICTION OF THE
TROUGH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THAT ON THE GFS. IT WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
FCST OVER THE WEEKEND AND MORE ACTIVE WX TO START THE WORK WEEK. WPC
FCST FOLLOWS A MORE GFS LIKE SOLUTION. WHILE THE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON LLVL TEMPS IN OUR AREA...IT WILL PROVIDE SOME
LLVL CONVERGENCE AND ENCOUNTERS ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE TO EXPECT POPS
ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A DIURNAL EMPHASIS AND TSTM
MENTIONS DUE TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME INSTABILITY. GFS SHEAR IS
INSUFFICIENT TO EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME WELL ORGANIZED DESPITE THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE AMPLIFYING EC TROUGH LEADS IT TO PRODUCE IMPROVING
DEEP SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD SUGGESTING A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH
TSTMS AT THAT TIME...IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...MODERATING SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND KHKY...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CIG TRENDS
ARE GOING TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS...AS JUST ABOUT
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH STEADY CIGS IN
THE LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH 04Z...THEN INTRODUCE TEMPOS FOR IFR BTW
04 AND 06Z. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COPIOUS MOISTURE...
EXPECT CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT...THE ONLY
QUESTION BEING A MATTER OF TIMING. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED THE INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE INHIBITED NEW CONVECTION FROM
INITIATING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...OR UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT ANY SHOWER MENTION...ALTHOUGH
CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW TO LIFT ON
WED...BUT VFR SHOULD BE REALIZED AT SOME POINT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS PERSISTED AT
MID-EVENING ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM WEST OF KAVL AND KGMU TO AROUND
KAND. ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DEVELOPING TO THE EAST WITH
TIME...SO TEMPOS FOR SHRA/MVFR VISBY (IFR AT KAND) HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE EVENING...BUT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE AT ANYTIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN/LOWER TO MVFR BY 06Z AT MOST
TERMINALS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW TO LIFT ON WED...BUT VFR SHOULD BE REALIZED AT
SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS OF RECENT
RAINFALL AND IN MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       MED   73%     LOW   59%     MED   63%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   79%     LOW   49%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%
KAVL       MED   76%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       MED   70%     MED   69%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   65%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 2:49 PM EDT, 6 hours 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-071900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
249 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SOME OF THEM
WILL DROP LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IN ADDITION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 6, 7:28 PM EDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
728 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

SCZ001-070000-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
728 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM EDT...

AT 723 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WESTMINSTER...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WALHALLA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WALHALLA...

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3484 8321 3481 8300 3469 8304 3463 8312
      3463 8313 3463 8314 3466 8328

NED
Special weather statement, Aug 6, 8:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
828 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

SCZ001-004-005-070100-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
828 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN OCONEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 823 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SENECA...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WALHALLA...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SENECA...
  CLEMSON...

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAKE KEOWEE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS. MOVE TO
SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3456 8301 3484 8308 3485 8290 3484 8289
      3482 8290 3481 8288 3486 8280 3486 8275
      3471 8271 3466 8280

NED

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 6, 8:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPOconee32 min
Aug 6, 9:17 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAnderson, Pickens2 hr
Aug 7, 12:30 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPPickens3 hr
Aug 7, 3:28 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPPickens5 hr
Aug 7, 9:39 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAnderson, Oconee3 hr
Aug 7, 9:53 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPPickens2 hr
Aug 7, 10:48 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPGreenville3 hr
Aug 7, 11:10 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPGreenville3 hr
Aug 7, 11:19 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPOconee, Pickens2 hr
Aug 7, 11:31 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPOconee, Pickens3 hr
Aug 7, 12:20 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPGreenville, Oconee, Pickens3 hr
Aug 7, 12:56 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPGreenville, Oconee, Pickens4 hr
Aug 7, 1:57 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPGreenville4 hr
Aug 7, 2:24 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPGreenville, Pickens12 hr
Aug 7, 5:36 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAnderson84 min
Aug 7, 6:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPPickens47 min
Aug 7, 7:36 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPSpartanburg39 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in South Carolina, 2013Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.