Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND...THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST...CONSIDERABLY REDUCING THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE RAISED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN WESTERN NC PER RADAR TRENDS...AND LOWERED IN UPSTATE SC AND NE GA.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN
ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A SERIES OF
CHANNELED VORT LOBES WILL MOVE NORTH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE GA COAST AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...
CONCURRENT WITH A RIVER OF MOISTURE BEING DRIVEN NORTH AROUND A
BERMUDA HIGH. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
INCREASING...AND THE WESTWARD RETROGRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN MORE MOISTURE DIRECTED TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERSTATE
77 CORRIDOR WILL BE EXPANDED WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEATING AND CAPE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A STRONG RIDGE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST AND A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL GRADUALLY FILL OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS INCREASES
THE H8 FLOW TO 25 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SSE WED NIGHT AND UP TO 40
KTS OVER THE MTNS ON THURSDAY. IT GRADUALLY MOVES A RIBBON OF 2+
INCH PW/S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET.
ALL OF THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL SOON BE EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FA...WE WILL ONLY
RUN IT OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IT/S
ALMOST CERTAIN THAT THE WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME OWING TO THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WED NIGHT AND THU.

BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE CORE OF
THE HEAVY PCPN JUST WEST OF THE MTNS. THIS HAPPENS AS THE UPPER JET
DYNAMICS SHIFT WESTWARD... INCREASING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ATOP
THE LLVL FRONTAL BNDRY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TN/KY. THE
GFS ALSO LIFTS A WEAK LOW OUT OF THE GULF...WITH H8 WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KTS OVER ERN TN AND NRN GA AND AL. HOWEVER...THIS MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT ALSO CLIPS OUR SOUTHWEST MTNS MEANING THAT YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT THE NC MTNS THU NIGHT LASTING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THAT WILL
SLOWLY DISSOLVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY DAY 7 ON
MONDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A
CLOSED H5 LOW WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVABLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH THE FEATURE WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SOME ENERGY WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH...OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE AND AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A LAST VESTIGE OF
THE STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO HOLD ON THROUGH
MONDAY.

AT THE SFC...NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
PERIOD AS THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINS ITS CONTROL OVER THE SE REGION.
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES WESTWARD...THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NW THRU THE PERIOD AND BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME
WEAKER AND MORE SLY. AS SUCH...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST. POPS TAPER OFF OVER THE WEEKEND TO MORE OF A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
CARRIED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO AS THICKNESSES
INCREASE AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR VSBY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK FROM S TO SE. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO LIMITED HEATING FROM EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

ELSEWHERE...LOW MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED...WITH
SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY...AND MVFR VSBY IN
SHOWERS. CONVECTION RELATED TO UPPER IMPULSES MOVING NORTH FORM THE
GA COAST MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS...BUT AN IMPROVING UPSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SHOULD GET PRECIPITATION GOING LATER TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED BY WEAK HEATING UNDER CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE
S TO THE SE.

OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MORNING STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...YIELDING MAINLY DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG WILL FAVOR THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   70%     MED   77%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   69%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       MED   72%     MED   60%     MED   73%     MED   74%
KHKY       MED   68%     MED   66%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  92%
KAND       MED   76%     MED   70%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-068-501>510.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ036-037-056-
     057-069>072-082.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>008-
     010>013-019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-
501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-030900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
454 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE ENTIRETY OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
BE UNDER THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THE THREAT WILL SHIFT MORE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ036-037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-014-030900-
IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-YORK-CHESTER-
454 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE ENTIRETY OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
BE UNDER THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THE THREAT WILL SHIFT MORE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

NCZ502-504-021115-
GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
621 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT EASTERN BURKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 715 AM EDT...

AT 614 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR ICARD
NORTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE RHODHISS...
  GRANITE FALLS...
  HUDSON...
  KINGS CREEK...

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE LIKELY IS THIS AREA.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3600 8132 3592 8135 3589 8133 3580 8133
      3578 8135 3577 8135 3576 8137 3567 8144
      3571 8156 3600 8144

MCAVOY