Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
802 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM...NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT
AND THE SOUTHWEST NC PIEDMONT...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 74 CORRIDOR. SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO
ORGANIZE ALONG COLD POOLS.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR.
STILL SEE SOME MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT THE EXTENT...THOUGH...WITH THE
NEW NAM STILL SUGGESTING SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED BUT THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SEEMING TO DOWNPLAY THAT. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET CONVECTION TO FORM FARTHER S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL
OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE E OF THE MTNS. THE AREA OVER UPSTATE SC AND
NE GEORGIA MIGHT BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE BECAUSE OF
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER DCAPE. WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ONTO THE LIKELY
POP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. COULD END UP WITH SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS OUT OF THIS AS SHEAR INCREASES...SO WE WILL LOOK FOR ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP INTO SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD DRIVE THE CONVECTION E BY MID
EVENING AND BRING SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THAT SHOULD PUT A STOP TO
IT. NOT EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...SO THE FCST WAS KEPT
DRY AFTER ABOUT 06Z.

FOR SATURDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS GRADUALLY BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT TO
SOMETHING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH ACTUALLY LEAVES THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS IN SOMETHING OF A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE DAY. THE MODELS
SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
DAY...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THE MOISTURE
IS DEEPER. FEEL OKAY ABOUT SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICAL...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT
GREAT THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH OUTSIDE THE MTNS. GRUDGINGLY KEPT A
CHANCE POP E OF THE BLUE RIDGE OWING TO MOS GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF SATURDAY
REALLY IS THE QUIET DAY. TEMPS WERE KEPT A BIT ABOVE A GUIDANCE
BLEND THINKING THAT STORMS MIGHT BE FEWER THAN THOUGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONARY SAT EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
I-77 CORRIDOR SW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD SEE
A GENERAL LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS/EC SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THESE
MODELS MOVE THE BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ALL AREAS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DUE TARGET
THE EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME HIGHER QPF LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST PULLS A VORT MAX THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HENCE...HAVE POPS IN THE NUMEROUS RANGE FROM THE
EASTERN UPSTATE THROUGH THE I-77 CORRIDOR FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER LULL IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL AGAIN RAMP UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS SOME VORT ENERGY ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE UPPER LOW
TO THE W. USED ALLBLEND DATA FOR MOST FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PARK
ITSELF ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE
TROUGH...AND WILL BE A MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST QPF VALUES WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
BUILDS ITSELF BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE RESURGING BERMUDA HIGH
WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ABUNDANT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LOWS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE AIR FIELD...WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH FOR
1-2 HOURS. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE TSRA WON/T DIRECTLY AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD...CANNOT AT ALL RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING
OVER THE TERMINAL...SO A TEMPO WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AIRFIELD BY
02Z...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST COULD APPROACH
THE AREA AFTER 02Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH THROUGH 03Z.
AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SW WINDS. ADDITIONAL TS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE LIMITED THAN IN RECENT DAYS...SO PROB30S SHOULD SUFFICE ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...CONVECTION IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS...OR IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE
OPTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE MENTION TO VCTS/VCSH THROUGH 2 OR 3Z. DID
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR SHRA AT KHKY...IN LIGHT OF LIGHT ACTIVITY MOVING
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SW WINDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE EXPECTATION OF SOME
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KAVL. ADDITIONAL TS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE LIMITED THAN IN RECENT DAYS...SO PROB30S SHOULD SUFFICE
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCT...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WIDESPREAD MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNUSUALLY MOIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-292000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH MODERATE WIND
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY... WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING... PARTICULARLY IF THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN
AN URBAN AREA OR A LOCATION THAT HAS SEEN HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
821 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

SCZ007-008-013-290100-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
821 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SPARTANBURG...NORTHERN
UNION AND SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 820 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF PACOLET...OR 5 MILES EAST OF
SPARTANBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PACOLET...
  THICKETTY...
  GAFFNEY...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3511 8154 3488 8148 3482 8190 3499 8196