Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING STRONG OVER THE SE CONUS.
HOWEVER THE CWFA WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT GRADUALLY THRU THE PERIOD. THOSE FEATURES
WILL MOVE THRU THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES SEEN IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST. UPPER RH INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS PERHAPS LIMITING DAYTIME INSTABILITY
BOTH THIS AFTN AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
THREAT...BUT STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY SHEAR AS TIME PROGRESSES LEADING TO AN INCREASING THREAT ON
ITS OWN.

CONVECTION THIS AFTN MAY WEAKEN OR BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD FOLLOWING
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...BUT WITH THE INCREASINGLY NOISY UPPER
FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX ACTIVITY SHOULD PICK BACK UP THIS EVENING.
PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LLVL JET NOTED
OVERNIGHT AND VEERING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH COOLS THE
MIDLEVELS AND IMPROVES LLVL LAPSE RATES. THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE VERY JUICY SOUNDINGS AND GOOD LLVL MSTR
TRANSPORT I LEANED IN FAVOR OF THE HIGHER MODEL QPF.

ON MONDAY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BEGIN ENTERING THE MTNS FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDDAY.
DRY SLOT SHOWN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON BOTH NAM/GFS. THIS WILL START TO
DIMINISH POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP SHEAR CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH SO STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY BE QUITE VIGOROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CA

AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...LINGERING DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY NIGHT SINCE THE 09/12 UTC OP SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP LOOKING S/WV
TROUGH. WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN NOW IN STEP WITH THE OP GFS IN
TRANSLATING UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PLAN ON SHAVING BACK POP A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
GIVING THE PALTRY MOS POPS...FALLING SFC DWPTS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLATED TO REBOUND TO VALUES VERY CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER BROADLY DIFFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
THAT OHIO VALLEY MCS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NW CWFA BY
WED AM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING
AT THIS POINT. UNLESS IT BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT AN IMPULSE/OUTFLOW
IS GOING TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACRS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY WILL PLAN ON
LIMITING DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES TO THE MTNS/LEE TROUGH LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CA

AS OF 1130 AM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF H5 HIGH WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
CWA. HENCE...I HAVE CARRIED LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS. THEN
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BEFORE
WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AROUND THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BEST TS CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE FIELD.
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH MVFR VSBY THOUGH IFR MIGHT EVEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME IN HVY RA. LOW VFR CU BASES WILL HANG AROUND
INTO THE EVENING...WITH LIKELY RAIN AND SLIGHT TS CHANCES CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ENHANCE
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MON MRNG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
BRING BACK THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO GO
PREVAILING -TSRA WITH MVFR CLOUD BASES AFTER 14Z. STRENGTHENING LLVL
WINDS WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AT THIS TIME IGNORING ANY
STRONGER GUSTS WHICH MIGHT ACCOMPANY TS.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEST OVER THE WRN SITES TODAY...BUT
ALL SITES ARE AT SOME RISK OF BEING AFFECTED. HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR
TO PERHAPS IFR VSBY IS THE MOST LIKELY EFFECT AT THE TAF TERMINALS.
CLOUD BASES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LOW VFR INTO THE EVENING.
INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE WITH SOMEWHAT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MVFR DECK LATE THIS EVENING WHICH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS MAINLY
THE UPSTATE SC SITES. PRECIP AND LESSER THUNDER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...RAMPING BACK UP MON MRNG AS INSTABILITY GROWS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS AFTER 18Z. GIVEN THE MOIST
CONDITIONS AND ONGOING PRECIP CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT AFTER
SUNRISE. S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. AS LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MTNS ARE AT RISK FOR
LLWS NEAR 020...BUT LEFT OUT OF KAVL TAF DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT FROM
GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     MED   73%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE STORMS SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>