Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION TODAY
THAT WILL FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOT FIRING QUITE AS QUICKLY
AS EXPECTED THIS MRNG OVER OUR CWFA THOUGH HEALTHY CELLS ARE MOVING
THRU THE AUGUSTA GA AREA. HAVE NOT EVEN SEEN CU DEVELOPMENT YET SO
TRIMMED BACK POPS GREATLY THRU NOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
UPWARDS OF 500 J SBCAPE OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT ATTM...BUT POOR
LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE THE SFC PER 12Z FFC RAOB MAY BE CAPPING
THINGS OFF. 12Z NAM AND RECENT RAP RUNS SHOW ABUNDANT CONVECTION BY
MIDDAY WITH AN EARLIER THAN USUAL PEAK IN CAPES...DIMINISHING
GREATLY BY MID AFTN POSSIBLY INDICATING THE MODELS THINK THE EARLY
ACTIVITY WILL USE UP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS AS WELL AS THE REMAINING 500-800 J CAPES SHOWN LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAINTAINED LATE AFTN PEAK POPS FROM PREV PACKAGE.
ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPTS PER LATEST OBS...ALLOWING FOR FASTER WARMING
IN THE GENERALLY CLEARER THAN ANTICIPATED SKIES THIS AM.

PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM...DEEP DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSE
UPR LOW TODAY...BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT ENTERS THE UPR MS
VALLEY. DEEP SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PERSIST ACRS THE SE
STATES AND ADVECT PWATS OF 125-175% OF NORMAL ATOP THE CWFA THRU THE
NEAR TERM. THE MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPR SUPPORT SHUD RESULT IN
SOLID COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP FROM SW TO NE. FCST SNDGS SHOW 1500-2000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED
CAPE TODAY...ESP IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE OP MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING BY NOON ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) HINT THAT DEBRIS
CIRRUS FROM GULF CONVECTION WILL DELAY THE ONSET HERE TILL MID AFTN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ALL ZONES TODAY. GOOD NEWS
IS HIGH FREEZING LVLS AND MOIST PROFILES SHUD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
THERE MAY AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS AFTN...WITH DOWNBURST
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
MOST SPOTS WITH THE HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER.

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT (INCLUDING THE CAMS) ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
AT LEAST LIKELY POPS LATE THIS EVENING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS
A SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROUND THE UPSTREAM TROF AND CROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SW. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND GFS MUCAPE FIELDS AND THE FCST
SNDGS...CAPE APPEARS TO REMAIN MARGINAL IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS...ESP IN THE
PIEDMONT AND BULK SHEAR RAMPS UP TO 35-40 KTS AS WELL...WHICH COULD
SUSTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE...AS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS...WITH THE INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND UPR SUPPORT. DESPITE
HIGH POPS AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...HYDRO THREAT STILL LOOKS
TO BE TOO ISOLD TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. NONE OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAIN LOOK HIGH ENUF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CA

AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY MIGHT BE MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MY IMPRESSION OF THE
MODEL DATA IS THAT AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE A
BIT DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. THAT BRINGS SOME
DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING
PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT THERE WILL
BE NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE CONVECTION...AND WE MAY SEE SOME
ORGANIZATION THANKS TO A SW 30 KT 850 MB JET. SO...POP WAS TAKEN UP
INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON...
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BACK INTO THE CHC RANGE MONDAY EVENING. THREAT
WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DEEP MOISTURE...BUT UNIMPRESSIVE BUOYANCY.
TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN BECAUSE OF SOME
INTERESTING MODEL DIFFERENCES. A CHANCE WAS KEPT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
TUESDAY COULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM LINGERS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP...PROBABLY BECAUSE
OF MUCH IMPROVED BUOYANCY. AM MORE INCLINED TO KEEP THE FCST CLOSER
TO THE GFS WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...FAVORING A
BELOW CLIMO POP. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SRN PLAINS...THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE BE IN THE MCS TRACK?
WE SEE THIS USUALLY AT SOME POINT EVERY JUNE...AS DISTURBANCES MOVE
OVER TOP A SRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND THEN TRIGGER MCS DEVELOPMENT
WHICH ROLLS DOWN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC.
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR BUT WITH SLOWER TIMING THAT
KEEPS IT TO OUR NW BY DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE TUESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT
WILL NOT GIVE UP ENTIRELY ON SOME PRECIP BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SUNDAY...MCS CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY...
AS THE MOSGUIDE TOPS OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WHICH AT FIRST BLUSH
SEEMS OUTRAGEOUS. NOT INCLINED AT THIS POINT TO RAISE TEMPS TEN
DEGREES AS 850MB FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG FROM WEST. EXPECT SOME DEEP
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVENT FULL SUN...SO I AM CONTENT FOR NOW TO MERELY NUDGE
UPWARD A CATEGORY OR SO. THE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONT COMING IN ON
THURSDAY...PERHAPS WITH A LINEAR MCS FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. STILL GOOD INDICATION THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW AND N FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED SOME PRECIP CHANCES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
ACRS THE REGION STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AND LINGERING WELL INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE FOCUSED ON DIURNAL PEAK IN ACTIVITY WITH A TEMPO
0920/0924. VCSH SURROUNDING THAT PEAK TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER PROBS
BEFORE AND AFTER. A TS IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION PRIOR TO
20Z. BEFORE THEN...MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME CELLS IN THE AREA...SO HAVE
A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 18Z TO 21Z. THEREAFTER...THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION MAY STAY TO THE WEST ACRS THE MTNS. GUIDANCE CONVERGING
ON WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND SOME FOG DEVELOPING WITH WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING THRU THE SC MIDLANDS WILL PRODUCE
SLY GUSTS AT KCLT AROUND MIDDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
CLUSTER.

ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACRS THE REGION STARTING BY EARLY AFTN...AND LINGERING WELL INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TYPICAL PEAK HEATING
HOURS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACRS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESP FOR KAVL. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF
THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%     MED   73%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   77%     MED   70%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE STORMS SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1255 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

GAZ028-029-SCZ011-091745-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-HART-
1255 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELBERT...SOUTHEASTERN HART AND
WESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF VESTA...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF
ELBERTON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  RUSSELL...RUCKERSVILLE...NUBERG...MIDDLETON...FORTSONIA...
  ELBERTON...DEWY ROSE AND LOWNDESVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3398 8282 3398 8286 3400 8291 3400 8293
      3405 8299 3434 8292 3428 8275 3421 8274
      3425 8268 3420 8256 3396 8276

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

NCZ501-502-504-091745-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
1257 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CALDWELL AND EASTERN
BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VALDESE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF MORGANTON...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...LAKE RHODHISS...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...VALDESE...
  SAWMILLS...RHODHISS...LENOIR...ICARD...HUDSON...GRANITE FALLS...
  GAMEWELL...DREXEL...CONNELLY SPRINGS...COLLETTSVILLE AND CAJAH'S
  MOUNTAIN.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3600 8170 3599 8139 3569 8144 3569 8165

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

SCZ007-012-013-091745-
LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
100 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LAURENS...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SEDALIA...
  CROSS KEYS AND CROSS ANCHOR.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3479 8191 3470 8164 3449 8182 3453 8198

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
113 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

SCZ005-006-010-091800-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-
113 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...EASTERN
PICKENS AND NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF PIEDMONT...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITE HORSE
  ROAD AT I-85...CHERRYDALE POINT...FURMAN UNIVERSITY...WELCOME...
  TAYLORS...POWDERSVILLE...PIEDMONT...PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
  DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...EASLEY...DACUSVILLE AND BEREA.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3468 8270 3494 8263 3497 8255 3498 8250
      3493 8230 3461 8250

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

NCZ053-065-091815-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
120 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BUNCOMBE AND
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 114 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AVERY CREEK...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ASHEVILLE
  MALL...I-26 AT I-40...UNC ASHEVILLE...FAIRVIEW...WOODFIN...
  WEAVERVILLE...SWANNANOA...SKYLAND...MOUNTAIN HOME...MONTREAT...
  MILLS RIVER...FLETCHER...BLACK MOUNTAIN...BILTMORE FOREST...BENT
  CREEK...AVERY CREEK AND DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3570 8228 3569 8230 3568 8228 3565 8228
      3537 8250 3542 8269 3577 8260 3578 8256

JOH