Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
422 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUS...INCREASED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM TO REFLECT RECENT
RADAR TRENDS AND FORECASTED CONVECTION.  ELSEWHERE...ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT SHOULD FADE SOONER
THAN ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...SO NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF T.S. ANDREA AS
IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BRIEFLY SWINGS THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT BEFORE FLATTENING EARLY TOMORROW. RAIN ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH ANDREA WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWFA THRU THE PERIOD.
ATTENTION TURNS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT LASTING THRU THE NEAR TERM.

FOLLOWING GFS/NAM RH FIELDS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...  MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN OVER THE ERN CWFA
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...AND THIS WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION THERE. HOWEVER A FEW CELLS ARE ALREADY GOING NEAR
CHARLOTTE...POSSIBLY BEING AIDED BY UPPER DEFORMATION ON WEST SIDE OF
THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION. WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES THE
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...EVEN IF VERY ISOLATED.
THUS MAINTAINED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE
DEPARTURE OF THE TROPICAL RAIN BANDS.

WESTERLY LLVL CIRCULATION AROUND ANDREA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ASSOCIATED LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP FIRE CONVECTION
THERE...BUT THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONGER
EFFECT DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME PER LAYER Q-VECTOR FIELDS. MODELS
DIFFER ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CAPE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN BUT VALUES
SHOULD EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS AT LEAST THE CLEARER WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA. HAVE FOCUSED POPS ON THE MTNS THIS AFTN...ALLOWING
THEM TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL PERSIST ONCE SFC TEMPS COOL AND SFC BASED PARCELS ARE
INHIBITED...SO THUNDER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CWFA UNTIL
EARLY SAT MORNING. SHEAR DOES REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD BUT UPPER WINDS INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
SO HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE
EARLY CONVECTION...AND INSTABILITY /ESPECIALLY SFC BASED/ WILL WEAKEN
BY THE TIME THE STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVES...PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EXPECTATIONS.

ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING IS LACKING WITH MORE OR LESS
ZONAL UPPER FLOW...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN. SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AT MOST
SITES BY ABOUT 15Z...GROWING TO OVER 1000 J BY AFTERNOON. DEEP SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO THINK A FEW CELLS MIGHT BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY MIDLEVELS WHICH SHIFT THE FOCUS MORE
FROM HEAVY RAIN TO HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE NATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...REACHING
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE TRAILING
END OF THIS COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
OUR AREA. MEANWHILE...THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OUR ARE ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.

POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL REMAINS...AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
NORMAL...WITH MINIMUMS INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO FL. THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES LITTLE ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA...AND A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. ON FRIDAY THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...CROSSING THE
AREA TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...
CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY GOING
FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 020 WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THRU EARLY AFTN
UNDER HIGH MVFR CIG. AS T.S. ANDREA SLOWLY DEPARTS THE AREA MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND BETTER HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LEAVING A CONVECTIVE VFR CIG. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LEE TROUGH IN WAKE OF ANDREA. THUNDER CHANCES RISE ACCORDINGLY.
THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EVENING PERIOD WITH
MORE BENIGN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WENT ALONG
WITH IFR STRATUS PROGGED BY SOME GUIDANCE. SHOULD LIFT BY MID
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE IN CLEARER AREA
WEST OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ANDREA. THINK THIS
WILL INITIALLY FOCUS IN THE MTNS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST AS THE WHOLE
AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. SOME THUNDER MENTION
WARRANTED AT ALL SITES. THUNDER LOOKS TO BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LOW VFR...PERHAPS MVFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
NEAR DAYBREAK BUT MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. MTN VALLEY FOG ALSO LIKELY
GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS...INCLUDING AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH  86%     MED   64%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
     006>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001-002-004-005-
081930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
328 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ501>510-SCZ003-006-007-081930-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
328 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-081930-
HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
328 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

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