Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. THIS MOIST FLOW
WILL HELP TO KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TSRA WILL TRACK NW TO SE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...SVR WX EXPECTED WITH A FEW STORMS. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPES RANGED FROM 2000-3000 J/KG
ACROSS THE CWA. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS FROM 70 TO 75. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE U80 WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS MAY
YIELD CAPES CLOSER TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY AND SC UPSTATE AHEAD OF THE TSRA. TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH
ISO SHRA. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE AROUND NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY. TSRA
MAY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH. LIKE TODAY...MTN CONVECTION WILL TRACK
EAST...SUPPORTED BY CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO TODAYS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF SLOWLY DEEPENING TO OUR NORTH AS THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
A LARGE AREA OF LOW LVL DEFORMATION REMAINING TO OUR SW. AT THE
SFC...A THE LEE TROF WILL KEEP WARM AND MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE
FCST AREA UNTIL WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NWLY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWFA FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT AND PASSES THRU THE
CWFA ON TUES. CHANCES FOR SCT SH AND TS WILL BE GOOD LATE SUN AND
EARLY MON WITH THE PREVAILING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL ALSO SEE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE POINTING TO A SLIGHTLY
DRIER FROPA ON TUES WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE CWFA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EAST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU
DAY 7 WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWFA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NW. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE ON
THURS AS LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES WEAK AND SLY FLOW TRIES TO REGAIN ITS
FOOTING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN LOOSELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA SFC HIGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PERIOD WILL START
OUT DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA AND POPS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK
UP TO MOSTLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR ISO TO SCT SH AND TS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...TWO SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF TSRA WILL TRACK NW TO SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TERMINALS...LIKELY BETWEEN 20Z TO 24Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TSRA
WITH A TEMPO...FEATURING NW GUSTS TO TO 20 TO 25 KTS. TERMINALS EAST
OF THE MTNS SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINING VFR. KAVL COULD SEE LIFR CLOUDS AROUND
DAWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT RETURNING TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
MONDAY. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND WHERE RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  86%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   65%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     HIGH  97%     MED   74%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-057-069>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-
011700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1249 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO COPIOUS MOISTURE AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068-501>510-011700-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1249 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE LINE REMAINS ORGANIZED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH COULD BE
COMMON. THE COMBINATION OF THE WET SOIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH....RESULTING IN
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NED

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