Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

583 
WGUS72 KGSP 312045
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

NCC023-027-312058-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0088.000000T0000Z-130831T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
445 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL BURKE
AND WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
REPORTS HAVE INDICATED STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE 
RECEDED...THUS ENDING ANY FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8162 3582 8151 3581 8171 3597 8184
      3597 8182 3596 8181 3601 8178

$$

KRENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WEAK HIGH
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MOIST FLOW
WILL HELP TO KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM..TWO SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
TSRA WILL TRACK NW TO SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...SVR WX
EXPECTED WITH A FEW STORMS. I WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS.

AS OF 1145 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPANDING FIELD OF
CU ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND CU BUILDING OVER THE RIDGES.
LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPES RANGED FROM 1500-2500
J/KG ACROSS THE CWA. OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDING FROM KFFC INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPES TO APPROACH 3000 J/KG DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS MORNING OBSERVED
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS FROM 70 TO 75. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE U80 WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS MAY
YIELD CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
IN ADDITION...THE ADVECTION OF THE WARMER DWPTS HAS PROVIDED A POOL
OF LOWER DCAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BASED ON THE RECENT CU PATTERN AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL
S/W...SEEN IN WV IMAGES...SHRA AND EVENTUALLY TSRA SHOULD INITIALLY
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS HANDLE
ADEQUATELY IN THE 4 KM WRF AND LOCAL WRF. I INDICATE CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS WITH SCHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. IT STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM THE FORMATION OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SCT CONVECTION MAY LINGER OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POP
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. I WILL ALSO WARM TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS OF DAYBREAK SATURDAY...SPOTTY CONVECTION POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MRNG
IN THE MTNS. LLVL FLOW NOW HAS VEERED TO NEARLY DUE WEST PER
PROFILER DATA...AND UPSLOPE EFFECTS ARE NOW FAVORED CLOSER TO THE
TENN BORDER. CELLS MOVING THRU EAST TN WILL MOVE INTO A MUCH MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY ENTER THE MTNS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...BUT
THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY THERE SEEMS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A WEAK MCV
WHICH MAY MOVE IN AND KICK OFF SOME NEW CELLS EARLY ON.

SOUTHWEST 925-850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...STILL FAVORING THE SW MTNS AND ESCARPMENT AT LEAST
INITIALLY. 500MB HEIGHTS FALL AS A TROUGH ROUNDS THE DEEP UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...AND NAM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED EDDY
COMING ACROSS THE CWFA MIDDAY WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTION.
LAPSE RATES IMPROVE A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AS A RESULT OF THE HEIGHT
FALLS. NONETHELESS NAM/GFS SBCAPE VALUES ARE MODEST. WINDS ARE
FAIRLY SLOW THRU THE COLUMN. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PWAT VALUES MEANS STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LLVL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO NWLY THIS EVENING...AND THOUGH CIN
WILL BUILD AS TEMPS COOL I AM RELUCTANT TO CUT OFF POPS QUICKLY.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL BE SEEN IN THE PIEDMONT THRU MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND UNTIL DAYBREAK NEAR THE TENN BORDER GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW
THERE. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC LOWS WILL REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SAT...UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US SUN AND MON
AS SHORT WAVES DIVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF REMAINS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT JUMPS INTO THE LEE TROF TUE
AND MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. S TO SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUN AND MON
KEEP COPIOUS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.75-2
INCH RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS. THAT
SAID...SHOULD NT BE SURPRISED IF ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERS BOTH
NITES GIVEN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
CONTINUES WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS AND COPIOUS MOISTURE. COVERAGE
BOTH DAYS WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER...BUT STILL SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER TUE AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROF
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SCT COVERAGE WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUING. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK NWLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA WED AND THU
AS A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROF REMAINS OFF
THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS FRI
CREATING A BUCKLE IN THE FLOW DEVELOPING A TROF OVER THE MID SOUTH.
AT THE SFC...DRY MILD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WED AND THU. WEAK SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROF FRI AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK
INTO THE AREA...LEADING TO ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...TWO SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF TSRA WILL TRACK NW TO SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TERMINALS...LIKELY BETWEEN 20Z TO 24Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TSRA
WITH A TEMPO...FEATURING NW GUSTS TO TO 20 TO 25 KTS. TERMINALS EAST
OF THE MTNS SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINING VFR. KAVL COULD SEE LIFR CLOUDS AROUND
DAWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT RETURNING TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
MONDAY. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND WHERE RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   71%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-057-069>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-
011700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1249 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO COPIOUS MOISTURE AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068-501>510-011700-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1249 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE LINE REMAINS ORGANIZED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH COULD BE
COMMON. THE COMBINATION OF THE WET SOIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH....RESULTING IN
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NED