Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW
THURSDAY AND BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 AM UPDATE...DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO UPPER LOW HAS HELPED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWFA. LOW STRATOCU FILLING
IN BUT ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING/THINNING DUE TO MIXING.
TRENDS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...WITH THE DRY SLOT SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.
KEPT LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST NEAREST BAND OF LLVL MFC BUT ALSO WHERE
HIGHEST CAPE SEEN THIS AFTN...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE.
STRATUS MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTION BUT LIGHT DYNAMICALLY FORCED SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP
THERE.

FOR TODAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS N GA/NE
AL/SE TN WHILE THE SFC LOW REMAINS OVER ERN TN. THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER...WHICH IS THE BAND OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE...WILL SHIFT NWD INTO NRN NC AND SW VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL NECESSITATE A CATEGORICAL POP OVER THE NRN TIER
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NRN ZONES WILL BE KEPT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AT LEAST.
ELSEWHERE...AFTER SUNRISE THE PRECIP CHANCES CAN BE CUT BACK. WE
WILL RETAIN SOME DEGREE OF MID LEVEL FORCING AS VORT CENTERS ROTATE
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THERE WILL BE SPOKES OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THAT WILL HELP FORCE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF PRECIP...BUT
THIS WILL BE WEAKER...AND THE BANDS MORE BROKEN. THE HIGHER POP WILL
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THINK OUR PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
SCATTERED OVER NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL RESUME AN EASTWARD DRIFT. THE BEST
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL HAVE LIFTED NWD OF THE FCST AREA
BY THIS EVENING...WHILE ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE BEST OVER CENTRAL
AND ERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME MANNER OF A HOLE
OR ZONE OF LESS PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD RESULT. MIN TEMPS
WERE DROPPED A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE NORTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE SHORT TERM...BEFORE
FINALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UNTIL THEN...AT LEAST PART
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN DEEP WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION ZONE
MOISTURE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. SOLID HIGH CHANCE/
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TUE NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDING OVER THE NORTHERN
NC MTNS...WHERE A NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AUGMENT THE LINGERING
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. WE WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE WOODS IN TERMS OF
HEAVY RAIN...AS BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN/SHOWERS COULD SET UP AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME/PLACE (ESP THE NORTHERN ZONES) AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RATES. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LARGELY ON THE
MESOSCALE...AND WOULD BE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN DURING THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...AS THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE BY THURSDAY...WHEN SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OHIO/MISS
VALLEY HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHES THE EASTERN STATES DURING LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON FRIDAY...AND POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE ADVERTISED DURING THIS TIME. MUCH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND...CARVING OUT A MAJOR EASTERN TROUGH BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL DRIVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION...SUPPORTING 50/60 POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HEALTHY POPS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

A MODEL CONSENSUS STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EAST OF THE AREA BY DAY 7...INTRODUCING MUCH COOLER AND (FINALLY)
DRIER AIR. POPS WILL TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST BY DAY
7...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL IN A REGIME
CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AREA THIS
AFTN AS UPPER LOW PROVIDES SOME FORCING TO ENHANCE LIFT FROM SFC
HEATING IN DRY SLOT. BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE
FIELD IN THE NC PIEDMONT. SUFFICIENTLY CONFIDENT TO MENTION TSRA IN
A TEMPO. MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW FROM
THE WEST. GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR WRT THE RESULTING
CIGS. HAVE GONE MVFR WITH SOME CONFIDENCE...BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS
THIS MORNING SOME IFR LIKELY TO AT LEAST BE NEARBY. WINDS QUITE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. DIURNAL
CONVECTION SITUATION WILL BE SIMILAR AGAIN TUE SO INCLUDED A PROB30
LATE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE NRN FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEVELOPING TS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW VFR WITH DIURNAL CU. SITES IN THE SW NC MTNS
AND SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH
DECK MOVING IN FROM GA. MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK IN AROUND THE UPPER
LOW TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIVE CIGS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND SRN
UPSTATE. TS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY WITH PROB30S INCLUDED AS
APPROPRIATE PER PRECIP CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THRU MID WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY
WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL HAPPEN. THINK WE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       LOW   56%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   70%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       MED   66%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%     MED   66%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-
     056-068-069-501>508.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCZ033-035-056-501>504-072000-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ036-037-057-072000-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-
505>510-SCZ001>014-019-072000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCZ035-061930-
ALEXANDER-
259 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ALEXANDER COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3597 8103 3588 8123 3601 8132 3603 8127
      3604 8121 3604 8107

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCZ036-061945-
IREDELL-
322 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF UNION GROVE...OR 13 MILES NORTH
OF STATESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3606 8094 3606 8076 3591 8072 3586 8093
      3605 8102 3607 8098 3607 8094

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCZ036-062130-
IREDELL-
439 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF TURNERSBURG...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
STATESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3606 8094 3606 8078 3588 8077 3584 8093
      3597 8101 3600 8100 3605 8103 3606 8102
      3607 8098 3607 8094

KRENTZ

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