Alert archive / North Carolina / Areal Flood Warnings in 2013

Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 6, 20136 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this areal flood warning at May 6, 2013, 2:29 AM EDT for 6 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 4 hr. 16 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 6, 2013, 2:29 AM EDT (06:29 UTC)
Expired
May 6, 2013, 6:30 AM EDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 6, 2:50 AM EDTFLOOD3 N Burnsville, NCFLOODING ALONG JACKS CREEK ROAD
May 6, 3:00 AM EDTFLOOD5 N Morganton, NCFLOODING ALONG JOHNS RIVER ROAD.
May 6, 3:00 AM EDTFLOODGlen Alpine, NCLITTLE SILVER CREEK IS FLOODING CAUSBY ROAD.
May 6, 3:15 AM EDTFLOODNewland, NCEVACUATION IN PROGRESS ALONG THE N TOE RIVER DUE TO FLOODING.
May 6, 3:30 AM EDTFLOOD6 Nnw Morganton, NCWATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS AT ROSE CREEK CAMPGROUND EAST OF BROWN MOUNTAIN BEECH ROAD.
May 6, 3:40 AM EDTFLOOD4 Sw Morganton, NCFLOODING ALONG BYRD ROAD.
May 6, 3:40 AM EDTFLOOD6 Nw Morganton, NCRUSSELL CREEK IS FLOODING FISH HATCHERY ROAD.
May 6, 4:08 AM EDTFLOOD2 Ne Woodlawn, NCOLD LINVILLE RD FLOODED NEAR AMERICAN THREAD RD.
May 6, 4:08 AM EDTFLOOD3 W Marion, NCOLD RESISTOFLEX RD FLOODED AT OLD GREENLEE RD.
May 6, 4:08 AM EDTFLOOD4 Sw Ashford, NCNORTH COVE SCHOOL RD FLOODED.
May 6, 5:11 AM EDTFLOOD3 N Table Rock, NCSWIFT WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS AT OPTIMIST CAMPGROUND.
May 6, 5:30 AM EDTFLOOD1 W Morganton, NCN GREEN ST FLOODED AT WAMSUTTA MILL RD.
May 6, 5:30 AM EDTFLOOD2 E Morganton, NCBETHEL RD FLOODED AT BETHEL PARK
May 6, 5:30 AM EDTFLOOD4 Se Morganton, NCMOUNT HOME CHURCH ROAD FLOODED.
May 6, 5:30 AM EDTFLOODSw Morganton, NCCONLEY RD FLOODED AT TREE FARM.
May 6, 6:00 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.811 Se Beech Mountain, NC

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2013-05-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2013-05-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 287 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
500 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
287 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
440 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

237 
WGUS42 KGSP 060629
FLWGSP

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCC011-023-027-111-121-199-061030-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FA.W.0021.130506T0629Z-130506T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
229 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  AVERY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  BURKE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  MITCHELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  YANCEY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 630 AM EDT

* AT 227 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.            
  STREAMGAGES AND SPOTTERS REPORTED FLOODING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS   
  WITHIN THE WARNED COUNTIES. FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF LANDSLIDES
  WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FLOODING WAS REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE UPPER
CATAWBA AND JOHNS RIVER BASINS. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS...FLOODING WAS 
ONGOING ACROSS MANY PARTS OF BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH TOE RIVERS AND 
THEIR TRIBUTARIES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  BURNSVILLE...LENOIR...MARION...MORGANTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...
  ASHFORD...BAKERSVILLE...BANNER ELK...BULADEAN...BUSICK...
  COLLETTSVILLE...CONNELLY SPRINGS...DYSARTSVILLE...GAMEWELL...
  GLENWOOD...GLOBE...GRANITE FALLS...HUDSON...ICARD...INGALLS...JONAS
  RIDGE...KINGS CREEK...LAKE JAMES...LAKE RHODHISS...LINVILLE...
  MICAVILLE...OLD FORT...PATTERSON AND RAMSEYTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT IF YOU ARE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY AT
THE BASE OF A MOUNTAIN OR IN A COVE. WATCH FOR LOOSE MOVING SOIL AND
ROCKS OR A SUDDEN INCREASE IN STREAMFLOW. LEAVE THE AREA QUICKLY IF
THIS IS OBSERVED. WHEN DRIVING ALONG ROADS WHERE THE TERRAIN IS STEEP
OR ROCKY... WATCH AND LISTEN FOR FALLING ROCKS...MUD...TREES...AND
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8192 3612 8181 3612 8154 3601 8132
      3580 8133 3557 8154 3556 8165 3561 8175
      3554 8185 3552 8215 3559 8229 3571 8228
      3582 8237 3582 8241 3598 8251 3612 8235
      3616 8222 3615 8215 3611 8212 3613 8204

$$

CSH
2 follow-up statements
361 
WGUS82 KGSP 060733
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCC011-023-027-111-121-199-061030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-130506T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
333 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BURKE...CALDWELL...MCDOWELL...
YANCEY...MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM EDT...

AT 328 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ROUGHLY FROM HICKORY TO LENOIR TO NEWLAND AND 
REPORTS OF FLOODING IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE HEADWATERS OF THE CATAWBA WERE STILL
RISING...AND PARTS OF THE JOHNS RIVER AND WILSON CREEK WERE FLOODING.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...FLOODING WAS ONGOING ACROSS BOTH THE NORTH AND
SOUTH TOE RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. CANE CREEK AND THE CANE 
RIVER WERE ALSO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN SPOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES WILL 
REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. 
BE ESPECIALLY ALERT IF YOU ARE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY AT THE 
BASE OF A MOUNTAIN OR IN A COVE. WATCH FOR LOOSE MOVING SOIL AND 
ROCKS OR A SUDDEN INCREASE IN STREAMFLOW. LEAVE THE AREA QUICKLY IF 
THIS IS OBSERVED. WHEN DRIVING ALONG ROADS WHERE THE TERRAIN IS 
STEEP OR ROCKY... WATCH AND LISTEN FOR FALLING 
ROCKS...MUD...TREES...AND DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8192 3612 8181 3612 8154 3601 8132
      3580 8133 3557 8154 3556 8165 3561 8175
      3554 8185 3552 8215 3559 8229 3571 8228
      3582 8237 3582 8241 3598 8251 3612 8235
      3616 8222 3615 8215 3611 8212 3613 8204

$$

CSH
384 
WGUS82 KGSP 060929
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCC011-023-027-111-121-199-061030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-130506T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
529 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BURKE...CALDWELL...MCDOWELL...
YANCEY...MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM EDT...

AT 523 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES. 
STREAMGAGES AND SPOTTER REPORTS WERE INDICATING FLOODING WAS 
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE HEADWATERS OF THE CATAWBA RIVER
AND ALONG PARTS OF THE JOHNS RIVER AND WILSON CREEK. IN THE 
MOUNTAINS...FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH 
TOE RIVER BASINS...AND ALONG CANE CREEK AND THE CANE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE 
SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT IF YOU ARE 
NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY AT THE BASE OF A MOUNTAIN OR IN A COVE. 
WATCH FOR LOOSE MOVING SOIL AND ROCKS OR A SUDDEN INCREASE IN 
STREAMFLOW. LEAVE THE AREA QUICKLY IF THIS IS OBSERVED. WHEN DRIVING 
ALONG ROADS WHERE THE TERRAIN IS STEEP OR ROCKY... WATCH AND LISTEN 
FOR FALLING ROCKS...MUD...TREES...AND DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8192 3621 8190 3612 8181 3612 8154
      3601 8133 3580 8133 3557 8154 3556 8165
      3561 8175 3558 8183 3561 8201 3558 8218
      3570 8228 3585 8229 3602 8246 3612 8235
      3616 8222 3615 8215 3611 8212 3613 8204

$$

CSH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at May 6, 1:55 AM EDT, 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 6, 1:55 AM EDT, 34 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY AND BRING
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP ON RADAR. THE NORTHERN
ONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE...WAS
POINTED AT THE NRN FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BAND WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE N ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA AND INTO THE NW
PIEDMONT THROUGH DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...THE OTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS NE GEORGIA AND THE WRN MOUNTAINS...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...NOT MUCH HAPPENING...ALTHO
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FORCED OVER THE MTNS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. WILL RE-EVALUATE FLOOD
WATCH CLOSER TO EXPIRATION.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. AT THE SFC...A
DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE WRN CWFA DURING THE MORNING AS THE BAND OF
SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SLIDES
INTO THE NRN CWFA DURING THE MORNING THEN NORTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE NRN SECTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH INCLUDES MOST OF
THIS AREA THRU THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE AREAL
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BAND TO
START THE DAY. INSTABILITY TRANSLATES NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL. IT ALSO INCREASES ACROSS THE MTNS WITH COOLER MID LEVEL AIR
MOVING IN. HAVE INCLUDED TSRA MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. RAISED HIGHS
A LITTLE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM EST MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD IN THE OP
MODELS WITH FINALLY LIFTING THE ULVL LOW NE OUT OF THE CWFA TUE INTO
WED WHILE A S/W RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS TO THE WEST BY WED NIGHT. THE
NAM IS PROVIDING A GOOD COMPROMISE BTW THE ECMWF/GFS/SREF H5 HEIGHTS
AND VORT CONFIG...WHILE THE WHOLE SPREAD OF SOLNS ISNT THAT GREAT TO
BEGIN WITH. THERE ARE SOME SIGFNT DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST
STINGY BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS MODEL MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING AS NO
DISCERNIBLE SIGFNT MOISTURE FLUX IS HAD AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAINTAINING ITS OWN DEGREE OF DEEP LAYERED SATURATION...AND THE LLVL
FLOW BACKS THROUGH THE PERIOD DEVELOPING W/LY DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/CLEARING NON/MTNS BY WED.

THIS WILL NOT BE A GREAT PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL BE WANING THROUGH WED. QPF AMOUNTS TUE THROUGH WED
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWFA AND A TENTH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER BROAD...ESP TUE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ALIGNED
IN THE BETTER DYNAMIC LIFT....BUT POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DROP INTO
SLIGHT CHANCES LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT ACROSS MOST LOCALES. THERE
WONT BE MUCH SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
AND THE SFC AIRMASS HAS LITTLE IF ANY POS THETA/E ADV.
HOWEVER...MLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TUE AND WED
AFTERNOONS TO SUPPORT SOME DEEPER CONVECTION AND THUNDER. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING STRONG AS A SFC CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE
LACKING AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY
DEPENDING UPON THE LEVEL OF DEEP MOISTURE MAINTAINED AND THE OVERALL
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL COUNT ON BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TUE
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND N/LY FLOW. ON WED...THE LLVL
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP PROVIDE MORE INSOLATION NON/MTNS AND MAXES
SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 200 PM EST SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
AWAY FORM OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE OH AN TN VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND A FRONT IN THE PLAINS. THE AIR MASS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST...WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING
AS TEMPERATURES WARM WITH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MOIST GULF INFLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA LATER ON
FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLATED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON ITS
HEELS IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY. POPS WILL RAMP UP AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT..PEAKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT...FALLING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN. NO
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY YET BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED. EXPECT CEILING AND
VSBY TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR UNTIL THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP LIFTS NWD. AFTER THAT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. CEILING SHOULD FALL AND STAY IN IFR CATEGORY
THROUGH MID MORNING...AT WHICH TIME SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN.
EXPECT SOME VARIATION WITH CLOUDS TEMPORARILY SCATTERING OUT DURING
MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF TSRA...MAY
REACH THE TERMINAL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SO THIS WAS
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A PROB30. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER
THAN 21Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW...ALTERING THE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH...ARRIVAL OF SECONDARY LINE OF RAIN...AND EVENTUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THRU MID WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY
WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL HAPPEN. THINK WE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   69%     MED   69%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     MED   70%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     MED   76%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   70%     MED   65%     MED   78%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-056-
     068-069-501>508.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-058-059-062>065-509-510.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010-011.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM
Hazardous weather outlook, May 5, 3:38 PM EDT, 10 hours 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

NCZ033-035-049-050-056-068-069-501>508-061945-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-509-510-
SCZ001>007-010-011-061945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ036-037-057-070>072-082-SCZ008-009-012>014-019-061945-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-
YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. UP TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE THE RAIN DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE MONDAY.
IF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS AT ANY LOCATION...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS...FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL
INTENSITY AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF THIS
OCCURS IN AN URBAN AREA. CONTINUE TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

JPT

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 6, 12:09 AM EDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1209 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     FLOOD            2 N MARION              35.71N 82.01W
05/05/2013                   MCDOWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            CATABA RIVER IS FLOODING SHIFLET FIELD AIRPORT.

&&

JOH
Local storm report, May 6, 12:24 AM EDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1224 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     FLOOD            1 ENE MILLS RIVER       35.39N 82.55W
05/05/2013                   HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            FRENCH BROAD RIVER IS FLOODING BUTLER BRIDGE ROAD.

&&

JOH
Local storm report, May 6, 12:54 AM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1254 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      5 SE BLACK MOUNTAIN     35.56N 82.27W
05/06/2013                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            4-6 FEET DEEP LANDSLIDE ON OLD FORT ROAD NEAR HIGH CLIFF
            TRAIL.

&&

JOH
Local storm report, May 6, 1:04 AM EDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
104 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      2 E BLACK MOUNTAIN      35.61N 82.29W
05/06/2013                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            WESTBOUND LANES ON INTERSTATE 40 IS CLOSED DUE TO A
            LANDSLIDE.

&&

JOH
Local storm report, May 6, 1:08 AM EDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      BLACK MOUNTAIN          35.61N 82.33W
05/06/2013                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LAKEY GAP ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO A LANDSLIDE.

&&

JOH
Local storm report, May 6, 2:09 AM EDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     FLOOD            1 WSW MORGANTON         35.74N 81.71W
05/06/2013                   BURKE              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SILVER CREEK IS FLOODING SILVER CREEK AIRPORT.

0105 AM     FLOOD            1 WSW MORGANTON         35.74N 81.71W
05/06/2013                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SILVER CREEK IS FLOODING THE SILVER CREEK AIRPORT.

&&

JOH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 5, 8:18 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPAvery, Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Mitchell, Yancey6 hr
May 5, 8:44 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPPolk, Rutherford4 hr
May 5, 9:13 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCleveland3 hr
May 5, 9:41 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPMadison5 hr
May 5, 9:41 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPSwain12 hr
May 5, 10:45 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson4 hr
May 5, 10:51 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPHaywood, Transylvania2 hr
May 5, 11:44 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPBuncombe33 hr
May 5, 11:44 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPBuncombe38 hr
May 5, 11:48 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCleveland7 hr
May 6, 12:17 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPPolk, Rutherford4 hr
May 6, 2:12 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson3 hr
May 6, 2:23 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPMadison8 hr
May 6, 4:07 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCatawba, Gaston, Lincoln113 min
May 6, 5:19 AM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPGaston12 hr
May 6, 6:29 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPAvery, Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Mitchell4 hr
May 6, 6:54 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPGaston3 days
May 6, 9:04 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBuncombe3 hr
May 6, 10:52 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPMcDowell, Mitchell4 hr
May 6, 12:11 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPBurke49 min
May 6, 12:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGaston, Lincoln44 min
May 6, 1:01 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander, Catawba44 min
May 6, 2:44 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPDavie46 min
May 6, 2:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell32 min
May 6, 2:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander31 min
May 6, 3:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell23 min
May 6, 4:39 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell51 min
May 6, 4:42 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke6 hr
May 6, 4:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPAlexander, Iredell59 min
May 6, 4:53 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke, Caldwell, Catawba6 hr
May 6, 4:56 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Catawba6 hr
May 6, 5:02 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCatawba, Iredell6 hr
May 6, 5:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPIredell57 min
May 6, 6:23 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPCatawba, Iredell8 hr
May 6, 7:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPDavie29 min
May 6, 7:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPDavie, Iredell60 min

Nearby

Areal Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2013Every areal flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.