Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY...AND STALLING TO THE
EAST. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION STARTED MAINLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS NOW FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON THE STRENGTH OF
MAINLY WEAK OUTFLOWS. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT
PATTERN TO BE SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
BACK BUILDING CONVECTION THROUGH EVENING. THE TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. LAYER RH/S
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THERE IS MORE SUBSTANTIVE UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND DPVA. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SO WILL
FEATURE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW FOR
PART OR ALL OF THE FA. IF WE HAVE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN THIS
EVENING THAT WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE THE NEED FOR HAVING A WATCH
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE
EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING N FL BY FRIDAY MORNING....WHILE
AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE
MODELS CUT OF A LOW IN THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND THE GFS
CLOSES OFF ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THESE TWO
LOWS MOVE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ON BRINGING DRY AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE
NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...WITH A POST FRONTAL
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE.

FORECAST POPS WIL BE HIGHEST WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL
POPS WILL BE CARRIED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY FAVORING THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE PIEDMONT FOR PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLED FRONT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES FURTHER
ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. BOTH GFS AND EC DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE CONUS THIS WEEKEND...AND RECENT RUNS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON INTENSITY AND TIMING. THE LOW DIPS SOUTH AND
RETROGRADES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CWA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE SC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING A
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS ABOVE CLIMO IN THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED...MAINLY FAVORING A DIURNAL TREND.

THE OTHER MAJOR FACTOR IN THE EXTENDED IS OF
COURSE TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS CHANTAL
STEADILY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING JUST TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
ON SATURDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
REMNANTS BY LATE WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST PATH
HOLDS...CHANTAL'S EFFECTS MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE
REMNANT LOW AFTER DISSIPATION. REGARDLESS OF CHANTAL'S TACK...THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN OUTFLOW DEVELOPING NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDLANDS HAS
PRODUCED A SHALLOW LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD.
COVERAGE AND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS THIS OUTFLOW MOVES
NWD...BUT THE TEMPO FOR TSRA HAS BEEN MOVED UP AN HOUR TO 21Z AND
GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE OUTFLOW. THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING/VERY EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WIDESPREAD
STRATUS IS AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE BROUGHT IN A BKN012
CIG AT 0900 UTC FOR NOW...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN BEST AT KAVL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD FILL IN CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID EVENING ON THE STRENGTH OF OUTFLOWS. THE VERY WEAK
STEERING FLOW IS THE ONLY FACTOR TO LIMIT COVERAGE IN THE OTHERWISE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT TRIGGERING OUTFLOWS AROUND.
WILL STILL FEATURE TEMPO TSRA MAINLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE CONVECTIVE DISSIPATES...WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS BLOSSOM OVER
THE REGION AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
EVERYWHERE BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TOMORROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE MOIST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AND
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH  89%     MED   69%     MED   78%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  87%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   69%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH  85%     MED   63%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  92%     MED   72%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ004>006-
     010>012-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...HG/MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>003-007>009-013-014-111930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
UNION SC-CHESTER-
336 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE FROM
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS. NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME
AREAS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
SUPPORT SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>006-010>012-019-111930-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
336 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
BRIEFLY SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME
AREAS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
SUPPORT SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

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