River Flood Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE TEMP/DEWPT AND SKY GRIDS TO
MATCH UP WITH OBS. POPS/WX LOOK ON TRACK...SO LEFT AS IS FOR NOW.

AS OF 300 PM...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ADJACENT TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.  THIS FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WILL MAINLY EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS AND THE
FOOTHILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND MIGRATION OF MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
WEST.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC
UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.  DUE TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...AND BACKED SURFACE
WINDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  CONDITIONS WILL
NOT IMPROVE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PLUME OF MOISTURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.
THUS...EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
ZONES WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST SITES.

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME AS THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ON MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SLOWLY FILLING UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS IL/IN ON SAT AND THEN OH ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN
THE FORM OF WIND DIVERGENCE AND A TRAILING VORTICITY AXIS WILL CROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN...PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WILL FOCUS LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS...AND
TAPER DOWN TO MID RANGE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR SAT AFTN.
COVERAGE MAY REBOUND THROUGHOUT THE REGION A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING UPPER SUPPORT. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN TIER OF
THE CONUS MON THROUGH WED. SFC HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE EXCEPT FOR A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL DRYING IS
INDICATED...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
TO 850 MB FLOW WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY TO CURB PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND PRODUCE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN POPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW ON THU. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RECOVER TO
NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING IN PROXIMITY TO CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROMOTE INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...THUS WENT WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA
THROUGH 00Z.  BEYOND THAT...CARRIED MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR SATURATION.  OTHERWISE...RAISED
CIGS TO VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.  WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND IN THE 8-10KT RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC
SITES.  ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR MVFR TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CARRIED MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH EITHER
VCTS...SHRA...OR BOTH.  AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...LOOKING FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR
LEVELS AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND AROUND
8-10KTS.

OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AS A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
REGION...YIELDING MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG WILL FAVOR
THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     MED   73%     HIGH  88%
KAND       MED   78%     HIGH  85%     MED   79%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037-
     057-071-072-082.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-052015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
411 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035-056-068>070-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ001>014-019-052015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
411 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES BEING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-052015-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
411 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES BEING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W ABBEVILLE           34.18N 82.41W
07/04/2013                   ABBEVILLE          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 28 BYPASS ON WEST SIDE OF ABBEVILLE.
            TREES ALSO DOWN ON TRAIL DRIVE...ROCK HILL RD...AND OLD
            CALHOUN FALLS RD.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W HONEA PATH          34.45N 82.50W
07/04/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY ON BETHANY CHURCH ROAD. TREES ALSO DOWN
            ON SC HWY 252 NEAR HWY 413 AND ON LAWSON RD.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E PIEDMONT            34.71N 82.45W
07/04/2013                   GREENVILLE         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON JOHNSON LANE.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
657 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOORESVILLE             35.58N 80.81W
07/04/2013                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE LIMBS DOWN ON A POWER LINE

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARMONY                 35.96N 80.77W
07/04/2013                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON EAGLES MILL RD.

&&

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

SCZ008-013-050000-
CHEROKEE-UNION-
718 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN UNION
COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARATT...OR 10 MILES NORTH
OF UNION...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATION...

GAFFNEY...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3481 8174 3487 8175 3491 8171 3494 8176
      3518 8184 3517 8150 3516 8146 3505 8147
      3503 8149 3498 8148 3494 8149 3494 8147
      3477 8148

MOORE