River Flood Warning 25, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
803 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...LARGE AREA OF MOD-HVY RAIN ACRS ABOUT 2/3RD OF THE
CWFA HAS PUSHED MANY SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS OVER THEIR BANKS AND
IS ALSO CAUSING SOME URBAN FLOODING...ESP IN THE NC MTNS ATTM. THE
OVERALL NATURE OF THE FLOODING SEEMS TO BE TRANSITIONING INTO AREAL
FLOODING VERSUS FLASH FLOODING. IN ANY CASE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE BEST UPR DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW...WITH
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST BY 18Z
THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...AN ADDITIONAL 1-2"+ OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS SET UP...AND THESE BANDS MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO SET UP ANYWHERE IN THE CWFA. SO WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS IS FOR NOW.

AS OF 430 PM...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE
CWFA...WITHIN A MOISTURE PLUME AND AREA OF UPR DIVERGENCE. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS TO MATCH UP WITH
TRENDS...INCLUDING BUMPING UP POP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS THE UPSTATE
WHERE RADAR IS FILLING IN.

AS OF MIDDAY WED...FOCUS FOR MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE NEAR
TERM APPEARS TO BE THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND SURROUNDING UPSLOPE FAVORED
AREAS. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEN ACRS GA AND INTO THE SW NC MTNS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CONNECTION TO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NONETHELESS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MARITIME MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AND MODEL QPF CERTAINLY REFLECTS ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE FULL STRETCH OF OUR PORTION OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXCEPT FOR
SOME PASSING POCKETS OF UPPER VORT SHOWN OVER THE NC PIEDMONT
TODAY...THE MOST ACTIVE UPPER FEATURES ARE ALSO SEEN ON OUR WRN
PERIPHERY AS A JET STREAK STRENGTHENS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE FCST PD. THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS ENHANCED QPF OVER OUR WRN
ZONES. PWAT VALUES REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO DIMINISH EAST TONIGHT.

THE PIEDMONT APPEARS TO BE AT SOMEWHAT LESS OF A RISK OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN WITH DEEP RH AND /BY ASSOCIATION/ PWATS THAT RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL VALUES IN 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE BY TOMORROW...WITH BERMUDA
HIGH MAKING INROADS ONCE AGAIN. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
SOME CLEARING AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL.  BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW ROBUST SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG OR HIGHER DURING PEAK
HEATING THU...ALBEIT WITH WEAK SHEAR. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE SLOW SIDE WITH THE STRONGER FLOW OFF TO THE WEST...SO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN LIGHT OF THIS AND THE
ENVIRONMENT IN OUR WEST REMAINING PRIMED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE CWFA.

STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST THRU THE NEAR TERM
MEANING LLVL SHEAR VALUES WILL POSE A SMALL SEVERE THREAT IN ADDITION
TO THE FLOOD THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE
RATES WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONGER STORMS ISOLATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
WEAKENING IN THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO EXTEND ITS RIDGING WESTWARD OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE AREA OF DEEP SLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WEST
INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE HIGHER ON FRI AS THE RIDGE WILL NOT HAVE BUILT IN AS
FAR ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY AS WELL GIVEN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LESS RIDGE INTERACTION. SHUD BE A DIURNAL TREND
TO THE CONVECTION...BUT IT COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE EACH NITE.
THERE WILL BE QUITE A QPF GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWFA WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT VALUES EAST AND HEAVIER VALUES WEST. COULD SEE THE NEED TO
EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WRN CWFA FOR ANOTHER DAY...BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT TO MAKE THAT CALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS A RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL PATTERN AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE WEAKENS AND ELONGATES ACROSS THE
SRN CONUS AND A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE SERN CONUS FROM THE ATLANTIC
THRU THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF S TO SWLY FLOW TO
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE
ENUF INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE RIDGING FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO A NORMAL LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP HAS SET UP WELL WEST OF THE
TERMINAL...BUT SOME NWD-MOVING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR KCLT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP A
TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR 00-03Z. THEREAFTER...SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE
REGION WITH AN OVERALL LOWERING CIG/VSBY TREND THRU THURSDAY
MORNING. CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN WITH
HEATING DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SO WILL INCLUDE A PROB30. WINDS WILL
REMAIN S/SE THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
TS OUTFLOWS.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS AND VSBY ACRS THE REGION RANGE FROM VFR TO
IFR...DUE TO AREAS OF +RA. OVERALL...PRECIP RATES AND COVERAGE SHUD
BEGIN TO DECREASE THRU THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE SHUD RESULT IN OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MOST EFFECTIVELY IN THE PIEDMONT
ON THU AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN THERE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN IN THAT AREA IF NOT
ELSEWHERE. HAVE PROB30 FOR TS AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING MAINLY
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG WILL FAVOR THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       MED   76%     MED   76%     MED   74%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     MED   67%     MED   77%     MED   65%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  85%     MED   74%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   74%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-042000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
359 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE COMBINATION OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND SHEAR FOR JULY AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...THOUGH THE THREAT
SHOULD SHIFT MORE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS. FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-032145-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER
PICKENS-HABERSHAM-HART-MACON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-RABUN-STEPHENS-
445 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT EASTERN
HABERSHAM...EASTERN RABUN...FRANKLIN...HART...NORTHERN
ELBERT...OCONEE...SOUTHEASTERN MACON...STEPHENS...WESTERN
ABBEVILLE...WESTERN ANDERSON AND WESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WESTERN
UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TOCCOA...
  WESTMINSTER...
  TALLULAH FALLS...
  LAKE RABUN...
  LONG CREEK...
  WALHALLA...

VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS WILL FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3417 8311 3423 8308 3426 8313 3423 8317
      3426 8331 3422 8336 3426 8334 3432 8340
      3442 8339 3447 8343 3503 8347 3504 8314
      3500 8311 3505 8293 3505 8272 3409 8260
      3406 8300

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARSHALL                35.80N 82.68W
07/03/2013                   MADISON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED ACROSS COUNTY DUE TO FLOODING.
            HIGHWAY 70-25 CLOSED.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WALNUT                  35.85N 82.74W
07/03/2013                   MADISON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CREEKS OUT OF BANKS AND TWO HOUSES DAMAGED BY WATER.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FLOOD            BAKERSVILLE             36.01N 82.16W
07/03/2013                   MITCHELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY AND SOME
            EVACUATIONS.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
825 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FLOOD            NEWLAND                 36.09N 81.93W
07/03/2013                   AVERY              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND MANY ROADS
            FLOODED.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
827 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      3 NW SYLVA              35.40N 83.26W
07/03/2013                   JACKSON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            20 HOMES ISOLATED BY A LANDSLIDE ON DICKS CREEK RD

&&

LG