Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

902 
WGUS72 KGSP 190951
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

NCC027-191006-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130519T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALDWELL NC-
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CALDWELL COUNTY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 600 AM EDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8152 3610 8148 3608 8141 3603 8135
      3578 8136 3578 8154 3593 8177 3595 8179
      3598 8180 3607 8173 3611 8180 3612 8180
      3612 8154

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
MOIST AND RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES EAST
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF
MOVES IN. HAVE TRIED TO PINPOINT BEST CHC OF CONVECTION EARLY...THEN
GO WITH NUMEROUS BY DAYBREAK AS COVERAGE SHUD INCREASE. TSRA ARE
CURRENTLY LIMITED TO OUTSIDE THE CWFA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK. ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER ISOLATED AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WOULD BE VERY
DIFFICULT TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE BEST AREA. THEREFORE...WILL JUST
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR AND RAIN GAGES AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS
NEEDED.

AS OF 1000 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHOWERS OVER NE GREENVILLE AND NW
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. A FEW AREAS EITHER SIDE OF GOWENSVILLE
HAVE PROBABLY HAD AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. FORTUNATELY THE SLOW
MOVING CONVECTION HAS NOT ANCHORED ITSELF TO ONE SPOT CONTINUOUSLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GSO SOUNDING...MODIFIED FOR
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN UPSTATE...HAD ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE...AND WE MAY SEE VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN A TSTM OR TWO
PERSIST FROM NRN GREENVILLE COUNTY NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO WRN NORTH CAROLINA A GOOD BIT OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE HELPED
AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOPEFULLY THE GRADUAL COOLING
OF THE BNDRY LAYER WILL CAUSE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO EXPAND INTO
MORE A STRATIFORM PCPN AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHICH WOULD
HAVE A MUCH LOWER FLOODING THREAT.

AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS
SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE FA. ONE
RATHER PERSISTENT AREA HAS BEEN AFFECTING NRN GREENVILLE COUNTY.
HOPEFULLY THE CELLS WILL START TO MOVE SOON. WITH THE SFC WINDS
BACKED OUT OF THE SE AND 925MB WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET...A LITTLE STATIONARY AREA OF
SHOWERS LIKE THAT COULD SHOW A TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY AND DROP
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WE/LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS OF 515 PM EDT SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OVER OVER THE UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE NC MTNS. THE PCPN
ISN/T WIDESPREAD...AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT HAD A TENDENCY TO BE VERY
DEEP. A FEW TSTMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PER THE LATEST SB
CAPE ANALYSIS...WE APPEAR TO BE TOO STABLE ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIAN REGION FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE I/VE CUT BACK ON THUNDER POTENTIAL AND CUT BACK POPS A
LITTLE AS WELL. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TRAVERS THE WRN NC PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REMNANT AREA OF SHOWERS MAY BE TRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME WEAKLY
UNSTABLE. NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE ATM HAS BECOME TOO
STABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION (AT LEAST FOR NEXT FEW HOURS)...AND
INDEED THE MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHOWER
BAND (EAST OF THE AREA). ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE
TENN VALLEY AT MID-AFTERNOON. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED TS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
ONGOING SHOWER BAND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THIS WILL WARRANT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY HALF OF THE FIRST PERIOD...ESP AS VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
FILLING UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY...THUS HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.

TONIGHT SHOULD SEE GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IN
THE MOST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER VORT MAX...AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP/HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE MODELS SUGGEST
A 20-25 KT RELATIVE LLJ WILL DEVELOP. ASSOCIATED SPEED CONVERGENCE
COULD SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS IN THIS AREA.

SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL REINVIGORATE NO LATER THAN EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY VORT MAX DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PROFILES REMAIN VERY MOIST. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM...
THOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWFA SUN NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY DAY MONDAY. WEAK DPVA WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING DURING THIS
TIME THOUGH Q-VECTOR RESPONSE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. NONETHELESS IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SUN NIGHT OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH CONTINUING
MIDLEVEL WAA CIN MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. WEAK WAA CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGE DEEPENS TO OUR WEST...WITH
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. BY PEAK HEATING THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING HAS DIMINISHED. SHEAR IS GENERALLY QUITE WEAK AND AS
LOW-TO-MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM THERE STILL MAY BE SOME
CAPPING...SO KEPT POPS IN CHANCE RANGE BUT WITH BASICALLY EQUAL
THUNDER CHANCES. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WIDELY ON TEMPS...WITH THE GFS
BEING MUCH WARMER ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE A
BIT CLEARER. MODEL BLEND IS NEAR SREF MEAN AND DO THINK ENOUGH
MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE GFS
VALUES...WITH HIGHS BEING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

POPS DIMINISH TO UNMENTIONABLY LOW VALUES MON NIGHT WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO EXPECT PRECIP FROM WAA AND WITH ENOUGH CIN TO
PRECLUDE CONVECTION. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BETTER HEATING EARLY ON TUESDAY...SO TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMER TEMPS WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO FIRE MORE EASILY ON TUE THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVERHEAD SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PRACTICALLY NIL. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR
THOUGH A TAD LOWER ON TUE AND MORE REFLECTIVE OF A DIURNAL CYCLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC AND UPPER RIDGE PROGGED MIDWEEK BY THE LONG TERM MODELS OVER THE
SE CONUS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. 06Z
GFS SOLUTION IS TO KEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THU-FRI...WITH 00Z EC FEATURING A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO ERN CANADA WHICH SWALLOWS UP THAT FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A
STRONGER NE CONUS CYCLONE. IN EITHER SCENARIO A COLD FRONT WOULD DRAG
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THERE IS REASON TO EXPECT INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU THU BEFORE FROPA. DIURNAL CONVECTION
SUGGESTED BY MODEL CAPE AND GFS SOUNDINGS...BUT ESPECIALLY THU AND
FRI AS COOLER MIDLEVEL AIR ARRIVES WITH TROUGHING ALOFT. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
SEABOARD...THOUGH SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH SUMMERLIKE LLVL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE LIKELY TO
OFFSET THE WARM COLUMN. TEMPS THUS EXPECTED CLOSE TO NORMAL THU AND
FRI BEFORE TEMPS DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING...IF NOT ALL DAY. I KEPT
A BROAD PERIOD OF VCSH OR -SHRA AS CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD REALLY
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS SATURATED THE UPDRAFTS WILL BE
WEAK...SO FAVORING SHOWERS. BETTER CHC OF TSRA RETURNS AFTER
DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO AN EXTENSIVE IFR TO LIFR STRATUS DECK BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH
SLOWLY LIFTS THRU THE MORNING. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. S TO SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  80%     MED   77%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-192030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
425 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS
QUICK RISES ON SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ENE FINGERVILLE         35.13N 82.01W
05/19/2013                   SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            VEHCILE STUCK IN 1 FT OF WATER NEAR CANNON FORD ROAD OFF
            HIHGWAY 11. FIRE DEPARTMENT CALLED OUT.

&&

07