Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE
MAINLY OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC AND ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SC...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING.
STILL EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STORMS ARE
MOVING FAIRLY SLOW BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MEANS
THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.  TEMP TRENDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS FINALLY PUSHED
SOME DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
WEAK SFC BNDRY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. SINCE THE LOW LEVELS ARE
STILL SOPPING WET...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE BNDRY. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NORTH OF THE BNDRY...INCLUDING MOST OF THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE DAY. DCAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE ARE
STILL QUITE LOW...AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE UP AROUND 13KFT.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS SOUTH OF THE BNDRY WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO MOISTEN UP A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW. THE NAM
AND GFS BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. EVEN WITH WEAK SHEAR THIS SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE TO TRIGGER SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING OVER
THE MTNS WHICH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH WE COULD AGAIN SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...A SLOWING AND DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL PHASE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN THE GULF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH DIGS ALMOST TO FL BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

A BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
LINGER OVER AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LIMITING
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN...BUT THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
AS SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN A MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN USA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
FRIDAY...STALLING NEAR THE CAROLINA AND GA COAST ON SATURDAY...WHERE
IT WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LINGER
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO MONDAY. A MOIST EAST NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER
THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER...WHILE MINIMUMS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THINK THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AVOID THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT NOT ENTIRELY AS AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
HAS EITHER WASHED OUT OR LIFTED BACK NORTH. AS A RESULT...SOME
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AND REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO
SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT. WILL HANDLE IT
WITH A VCSH FOR NOW...AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ONCE THE CONVECTION
DIES OFF...THERE SHOULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT A BKN MVFR CEILING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOG MIGHT NOT BE A
PROBLEM IF PRECIP DOES NOT FALL NEAR THE AIRPORT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER THREAT OF TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE
HANDLED WITH A PROB30. WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SW OR S.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE UPSTATE WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY...THRU ABOUT 02Z. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH MVFR CEILING TOWARD MORNING. COULD SEE PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG
AS WELL. MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. THERE COULD ALSO
BE MVFR OR IFR CLOUDS/FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MID MORNING ON
ANY DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   77%     LOW   53%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     MED   69%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     MED   74%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-091930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
344 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION...ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

VERY WET SOIL CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERSISTENT RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

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