Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY WED...FOCUS FOR MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IN THE NEAR
TERM APPEARS TO BE THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND SURROUNDING UPSLOPE FAVORED
AREAS. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEN ACRS GA AND INTO THE SW NC MTNS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CONNECTION TO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NONETHELESS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MARITIME MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AND MODEL QPF CERTAINLY REFLECTS ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE FULL STRETCH OF OUR PORTION OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXCEPT FOR
SOME PASSING POCKETS OF UPPER VORT SHOWN OVER THE NC PIEDMONT
TODAY...THE MOST ACTIVE UPPER FEATURES ARE ALSO SEEN ON OUR WRN
PERIPHERY AS A JET STREAK STRENGTHENS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE FCST PD. THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS ENHANCED QPF OVER OUR WRN
ZONES. PWAT VALUES REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO DIMINISH EAST TONIGHT.

THE PIEDMONT APPEARS TO BE AT SOMEWHAT LESS OF A RISK OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN WITH DEEP RH AND /BY ASSOCIATION/ PWATS THAT RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL VALUES IN 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE BY TOMORROW...WITH BERMUDA
HIGH MAKING INROADS ONCE AGAIN. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
SOME CLEARING AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL.  BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW ROBUST SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG OR HIGHER DURING PEAK
HEATING THU...ALBEIT WITH WEAK SHEAR. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE SLOW SIDE WITH THE STRONGER FLOW OFF TO THE WEST...SO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN LIGHT OF THIS AND THE
ENVIRONMENT IN OUR WEST REMAINING PRIMED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE CWFA.

STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST THRU THE NEAR TERM
MEANING LLVL SHEAR VALUES WILL POSE A SMALL SEVERE THREAT IN ADDITION
TO THE FLOOD THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE
RATES WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONGER STORMS ISOLATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
WEAKENING IN THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO EXTEND ITS RIDGING WESTWARD OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE AREA OF DEEP SLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WEST
INTO THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE HIGHER ON FRI AS THE RIDGE WILL NOT HAVE BUILT IN AS
FAR ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY AS WELL GIVEN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LESS RIDGE INTERACTION. SHUD BE A DIURNAL TREND
TO THE CONVECTION...BUT IT COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE EACH NITE.
THERE WILL BE QUITE A QPF GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWFA WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT VALUES EAST AND HEAVIER VALUES WEST. COULD SEE THE NEED TO
EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WRN CWFA FOR ANOTHER DAY...BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT TO MAKE THAT CALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS A RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL PATTERN AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE WEAKENS AND ELONGATES ACROSS THE
SRN CONUS AND A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE SERN CONUS FROM THE ATLANTIC
THRU THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF S TO SWLY FLOW TO
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE
ENUF INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE RIDGING FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO A NORMAL LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD
COVER SO FAR TODAY NEAR THE FIELD. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN NUMEROUS
TS OVER SC MIDLANDS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO THE COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IN THE NC PIEDMONT. SHRA WILL CONTINUE...BUT STILL
THINK TS WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. TS MAY BRING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF IFR. THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND IN SLY FLOW
TONIGHT SO ONCE AGAIN A LOWERING CIG MAY BE EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH
BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EVENING AS BETTER INGREDIENTS SHIFT WEST.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP IN A MORE SEASONABLE
ENVIRONMENT ON THU. WINDS WILL BACK FROM S TO SE DURING THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS ARD THE REGION ARE MVFR ATTM AND EXCEPT IN
AREAS WHERE TSRA OCCUR THEY SHOULD NOT WORSEN TODAY. DEEP SLY FLOW
AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE...STRONGEST OVER THE SRN MTNS. IT IS
THERE THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORST DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT IFR IS WARRANTED AT ALL THE SITES EXCEPT KAND. SHRA
WILL GENERALLY BE HEAVIER AND CIGS LOWER IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MOST EFFECTIVELY IN THE PIEDMONT ON THU AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN THERE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN IN THAT AREA IF NOT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING MAINLY
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG WILL FAVOR THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  80%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       MED   73%     MED   78%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%
KAND       MED   75%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-042000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
359 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE COMBINATION OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND SHEAR FOR JULY AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...THOUGH THE THREAT
SHOULD SHIFT MORE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS. FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1217 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE BAKERSVILLE       36.04N 82.09W
07/03/2013                   MITCHELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FLASH FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 226 N AND CANE CREEK ROAD.

&&

AGOODMAN