Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...POPS FOR THIS AFTN LOOK REASONABLY GOOD FOR NOW...BUT
TRIMMED BACK VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE UPSTATE. CLOUD COVER BREAKING
UP AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THAT AREA SO THINK
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL GET GOING THERE BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER.

AT 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST WEST WEST
OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN ATLANTIC
UPPER HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS WEST OVER THE EAST COAST. CHANNELED
VORTICITY BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. POPS WILL
BE GREATEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY...WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER
TODAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER AND LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES WEST...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRAIN
OF UPPER VORT MAXES MOVING NORTH BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER RANGE
OF POPS BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WARMING MID LEVELS
MAY CAP PROFILES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...EVEN AS CAPE
INCREASES AND SHEAR PERSISTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
NORMAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
FAR WEST THE BEST FORCING FOR PCPN MOVES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT SHIFTS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SFC LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE GOM THURSDAY AND ACROSS
MIDDLE TN THU NIGHT. H8 WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS ON THE GFS. THE CANADIAN HAS SIMILAR TIMING
THOUGH IT/S LOW IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. EVEN THE NAM IS LARGELY ON
BOARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IN
THE HEART OF THE STRONG LLVL JET. HOWEVER...THE FLOW EVEN INCREASES
TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW NC MTNS AS WELL AS
NE GA. CONSIDERING HOW MOIST THE AIRMASS IS...THIS CERTAINLY COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE EAST I
WOULDN/T EXPECT AS MUCH OF A RESPONSE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PARTICULARLY THE PIEDMONT. SO I HAVE LOWER POPS TO THE EAST...VERY
MUCH IN LINE WITH THE POPS THAT THE DAY SHIFT HAD. WPC ALSO ORIENTS
THE HEAVIEST QPF WEST OF THE MTNS...THOUGH THEY STILL HAVE A SOLID
INCH OF PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES 12 UTC THU TO 12 UTC FRI.

THERE ARE NOT ANY MODEL FEATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COMPARABLE
TO THE ONE THURSDAY...AT LEAST NOT RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY PCPN STAY WEST OF THE FA...AND IN FACT MAY
SHIFT FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
OF LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...I DON/T
SEE ANY CAPPING ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...EVEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. SO
EVEN AS THE BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST...THERE
SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES INCREASE. IN FACT...THE HIGH DOESN/T LOOK TO MAKE NEARLY THE
WESTWARD MOVE THAT WE WERE SEEING IN THE MODELS A COUPLE DAYS AGO. I
HOPE THIS DOESN/T MEAN THE WRN ZONES WILL BE UNDER A BAND OF BETTER
FORCING AND ATTENDANT HEAVY PCPN COVERAGE THAN WE CURRENTLY
THINK...BUT IT WELL MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PICKS UP AT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CONUS...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH
WITH TROUGH OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HIGH OVER ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FOR OUR AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SW DURING SUNDAY AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE ON THE GFS AT THE 925MB LEVEL THROUGH TUES. MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A ECLIPSE IN THE GFS DATA FROM 06Z MONDAY
TO 12Z TUESDAY...THE OBVIOUS SHIFT IS FROM THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO A
MORE ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW BY DAY 7 OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
OLD ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE BLOCKING PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE FOR MUCH LOWER POPS
PEAKING AT HIGH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POP IN THE MAX HEATING TIME
FRAME OF THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORING THE MTNS FOR MON AND TUES.

WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND GREATER ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESSES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASON NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD
COVER SO FAR TODAY NEAR THE FIELD. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN NUMEROUS
TS OVER SC MIDLANDS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO THE COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IN THE NC PIEDMONT. SHRA WILL CONTINUE...BUT STILL
THINK TS WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. TS MAY BRING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF IFR. THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND IN SLY FLOW
TONIGHT SO ONCE AGAIN A LOWERING CIG MAY BE EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH
BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EVENING AS BETTER INGREDIENTS SHIFT WEST.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP IN A MORE SEASONABLE
ENVIRONMENT ON THU. WINDS WILL BACK FROM S TO SE DURING THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS ARD THE REGION ARE MVFR ATTM AND EXCEPT IN
AREAS WHERE TSRA OCCUR THEY SHOULD NOT WORSEN TODAY. DEEP SLY FLOW
AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE...STRONGEST OVER THE SRN MTNS. IT IS
THERE THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORST DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT IFR IS WARRANTED AT ALL THE SITES EXCEPT KAND. SHRA
WILL GENERALLY BE HEAVIER AND CIGS LOWER IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MOST EFFECTIVELY IN THE PIEDMONT ON THU AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN THERE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN IN THAT AREA IF NOT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING MAINLY
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG WILL FAVOR THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  81%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       MED   71%     MED   74%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     MED   77%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-040900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
446 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE COMBINATION OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND SHEAR FOR JULY AND
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT MORE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. FLOOD OR FLASH WATCHES WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1217 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE BAKERSVILLE       36.04N 82.09W
07/03/2013                   MITCHELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FLASH FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 226 N AND CANE CREEK ROAD.

&&

AGOODMAN