Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REST OF THE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS WILL SUSTAIN MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WITH THE BEST THREAT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH WHILE THE
FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN PEAK HEATING...BELIEVE
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS
LLJ INCREASES TO PRODUCE A LONGER HODOGRAPH TO SUSTAIN STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SECONDARY THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER COMES IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING...MUGGY LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOME OF THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE SO CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL
ALSO SURGE TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A CAP COULD BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EVEN HIGHER. WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
TO 2500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -7 TO -10...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 7.5 TO 9.0 C/KM...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND 0-3 KM AGL HELICITIES OF 200-400
M2/S2...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKE A GOOD PROBABILITY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THERE COULD BE A
SECONDARY THREAT OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE LCLS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL RAPIDLY DROP
BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 80S...POSSIBLY LOWER 90S. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT HOW HIGH REMAINS THE QUESTION. FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY AT SOME POINT IF THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOW AN UPWARD TREND.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SWING THROUGH. ON
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TROUGH MONDAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY...ELIMINATING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF
NEXT WEEK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MINIMIZE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRIMARY
CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AT BOTH SITES AND A CHANCE OF SOME
MVFR FOG TONIGHT AT MCK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY EXCEPT IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY REACH MVFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
121 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013 /221 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1254 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             13 WNW WRAY             40.15N 102.45W
05/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1258 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             4 NW WRAY               40.12N 102.28W
05/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     HAIL             WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
05/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WRAY.

&&

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
137 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

NEZ080-162000-
HITCHCOCK-
237 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PALISADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4034 10083 4023 10109 4035 10131 4035 10130
      4035 10083
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 244DEG 18KT 4032 10110

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

NEZ080-081-162100-
HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
342 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND RED
WILLOW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 336 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF CULBERTSON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.  BE PREPARED IN CASE THIS STORM INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES
SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4034 10051 4023 10090 4035 10094 4035 10050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 258DEG 22KT 4034 10081

LUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
251 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 ESE BEECHER ISLAND    39.84N 101.96W
05/16/2013  E70 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            ALSO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PEA AND MARBLE SIZED HAIL
            COVERING THE GROUND

&&

024