Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

OVERALL ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. PREVIOUS THINKING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED REGARDING MORPHOLOGY OF STORMS TONIGHT. DESPITE THE VERY
GOOD 0-6KM SHEAR...DO NOT BELIEVE HAIL INCH IN DIAMETER WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO VERY NARROW CAPE PROFILES THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE WAS CONTEMPLATING UPGRADING THE WIND ADVISORY DUE TO
SUSTAINED WINDS AT SEVERAL OF THE SITES NEARING 40 MPH. HOWEVER
LOOKING FURTHER WEST THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE CLOUD
SHIELD. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR THE WINDS AT GOODLAND HAVE ALSO
DECREASED...SO WILL HOLD OFF UPGRADING THE CURRENT ADVISORY.
SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AT LAJUTA
SO AM THINKING THE SAME WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG TROUGH
WITH CLOSED CENTER JUST WEST OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. 120-125KT
H3 JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH NOSE OF JET
STREAK BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER NW KS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
NORTH OF KGLD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z WITH BEST
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT
BEST FORCING OVER OUR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-03Z.

FORECAST INITIATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CINH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LIMITING CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VIRGA
APPARENT ON RADAR...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY LIKELY WONT GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON TD WITH LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS LIKELY ORIGINATING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE TD VALUES
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. AT THIS POINT RAP SOLUTION OF 500-600
J/KG ML CAPE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE...THOUGH I WOULDNT RULE
OUT EASTERN LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING. BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND 00Z FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
A LINE OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVING
EAST...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER
PROFILES IN PLACE. I STILL EXPECT WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IF WE CAN GET AN ORGANIZED/DISCREET CELL THEN
SEVERE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

REGARDING WINDS...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WEST AND WITH LEE TROUGH STILL DEEPENING I EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS/MAV GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS NEAR WARNING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO WINDY CONSIDERING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. UNLESS WE SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MIX WINDS FROM ABOUT 700-750MB I THINK WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

A SECONDARY VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING. LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY AND
RAISED HIGHS AS MUCH AS ISC ALLOWED. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES
IN THE GREAT BASIN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AND SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY APPROACHES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MODELS IN
VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM PAST MONDAY...THE
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO KICK IT OUT COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN AVIATION WX
CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
THE EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN EASTERN
COLORADO STEADILY MOVING EAST AS OF 00Z. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT
GLD SHORTLY AND MCK LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW VFR LEVELS WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO A LACK OF SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NONETHELESS EXPECT SOME RAIN AND WIND. STORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DUE TO FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT MCK...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE TODAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
513 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013 /613 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING
DUST WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO HALF MILE AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE WEST...FORMING INTO A LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED. PLEASE REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE
OR WIND GUSTS TO OUR OFFICE USING OUR FACEBOOK OR TWITTER PAGE.
YOU CAN ALSO CALL OUR OFFICE AT EIGHT HUNDRED TWO SEVEN TWO
SEVENTY EIGHT ELEVEN.

JTL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
609 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND GST     FIRSTVIEW               38.82N 102.53W
10/10/2013  M59 MPH          CHEYENNE           CO   MESONET

&&

LUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
613 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N WESKAN              38.87N 101.96W
10/10/2013  M78 MPH          WALLACE            KS   STORM CHASER

            SUSTAINED 60-65 MPH FOR 2 MIN. REPORT VIA SPOTTERNETWORK.

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
625 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W RULETON             39.34N 101.90W
10/10/2013                   SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TWO POWER POLES SNAPPED. EST 65 MPH WINDS. RELAYED VIA
            SPOTTERNETWORK.

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
635 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             10 S SHARON SPRINGS     38.75N 101.75W
10/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       WALLACE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
640 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             12 S LAIRD              39.91N 102.10W
10/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME TO NICKEL SIZE BUT A FEW WERE QUARTER SIZE.
            LASTED FOR ONE MINUTE.

&&

LUNDQUIST