Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
626 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
AND ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405. STORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THAT STORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
MAY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT THESE
STORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST COLORADO AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THESE STORMS AS WELL AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
INCREASE INTO THE 103-107 DEGREE RANGE.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE UNSTABLE AND CONVERGENT NEAR SURFACE
REGION IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE AIDED BY THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT POISED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY
THAN ON TUESDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME BECOMING SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

WED NIGHT-FRIDAY...591 DM H5 RIDGE WILL BE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE
INFLUENCE ON THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WED NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON
THURSDAY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON PROJECTED DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
FIELDS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AXIS OF
INSTABILITY CENTERED OVER THE AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED FLOW
PATTERN...STORMS SHOULD DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THINK POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT WITH
MODELS VARYING GREATLY BETWEEN EARLY AFTERNOON INITIATION/ENDING AND
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OCCURRING IN THE EVENING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
TOO LOW TO GO ABOVE THE CHANCE RANGE.  GIVEN EXPECTED THERMAL AND
WIND FIELDS...STRONG WAA MAY ALLOW STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASED CINH. A
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

FOR TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM WED NIGHT CONVECTION LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST ALTHOUGH GIVEN MODEL BIASES THE PAST 2
WEEKS NOT SURE IF I WANT TO GO AS COOL AS OPERATIONAL DATA SUGGESTS.
ANY POSSIBLE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE LOW 100S BY FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED (FRI NIGHT-TUESDAY)...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SFC FRONT STALLING NEAR THE AREA
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP THREAT TO SOME DEGREE...FOCUSING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE CWA. WAS INCLINED TO BACK OFF POPS 10-15 PERCENT...BUT
WITH GEFS STILL INDICATING A FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIP SIGNAL HAVE OPTED
TO LET CURRENT CONSENSUS POPS REMAIN AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WILL  CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM KGLD AND SHOULD AVOID
KMCK BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS AT KGLD WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MOVE THROUGH. NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD RESUME ONCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND WASH
OUT. SREF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF SOME LOW STRATUS AT
KGLD TONIGHT BUT THE OCCURRENCE DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED LATER. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING KGLD
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING TS BUT A MENTION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...RRH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
737 PM MDT TUE JUL 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             6 E CLAYTON             39.74N 100.06W
07/09/2013  E2.75 INCH       NORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 6 MILES EAST OF
            CLAYTON. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0725 PM     HAIL             2 S NORTON              39.81N 99.89W
07/09/2013  M1.25 INCH       NORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM     HAIL             NORTON                  39.84N 99.89W
07/09/2013  M1.25 INCH       NORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RHUSTED

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