Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
626 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
AND ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405. STORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THAT STORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
MAY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT THESE
STORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST COLORADO AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THESE STORMS AS WELL AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
INCREASE INTO THE 103-107 DEGREE RANGE.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE UNSTABLE AND CONVERGENT NEAR SURFACE
REGION IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE AIDED BY THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT POISED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY
THAN ON TUESDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME BECOMING SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

WED NIGHT-FRIDAY...591 DM H5 RIDGE WILL BE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE
INFLUENCE ON THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WED NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON
THURSDAY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON PROJECTED DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
FIELDS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AXIS OF
INSTABILITY CENTERED OVER THE AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED FLOW
PATTERN...STORMS SHOULD DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THINK POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT WITH
MODELS VARYING GREATLY BETWEEN EARLY AFTERNOON INITIATION/ENDING AND
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OCCURRING IN THE EVENING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
TOO LOW TO GO ABOVE THE CHANCE RANGE.  GIVEN EXPECTED THERMAL AND
WIND FIELDS...STRONG WAA MAY ALLOW STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASED CINH. A
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

FOR TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM WED NIGHT CONVECTION LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST ALTHOUGH GIVEN MODEL BIASES THE PAST 2
WEEKS NOT SURE IF I WANT TO GO AS COOL AS OPERATIONAL DATA SUGGESTS.
ANY POSSIBLE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE LOW 100S BY FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED (FRI NIGHT-TUESDAY)...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SFC FRONT STALLING NEAR THE AREA
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP THREAT TO SOME DEGREE...FOCUSING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE CWA. WAS INCLINED TO BACK OFF POPS 10-15 PERCENT...BUT
WITH GEFS STILL INDICATING A FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIP SIGNAL HAVE OPTED
TO LET CURRENT CONSENSUS POPS REMAIN AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WILL  CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM KGLD AND SHOULD AVOID
KMCK BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS AT KGLD WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MOVE THROUGH. NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD RESUME ONCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND WASH
OUT. SREF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF SOME LOW STRATUS AT
KGLD TONIGHT BUT THE OCCURRENCE DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED LATER. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING KGLD
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING TS BUT A MENTION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
548 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013 /648 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM OBERLIN TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. A FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SOUTHWEST OF A YUMA COLORADO TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
726 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

KSZ004-100100-
NORTON-
726 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 724 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EDMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  LOCATIONS AND TIMES OF ARRIVAL INCLUDE...
  DENSMORE BY 740 PM CDT...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 9991 3957 9999 3965 10004 3983 9963
      3983 9962 3957 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 248DEG 27KT 3964 9989

THEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
655 PM MDT TUE JUL 9 2013

KSZ003-004-016-100130-
DECATUR-GRAHAM-NORTON-
755 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...DECATUR
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JENNINGS...OR NEAR
JENNINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  LOCATIONS AND TIMES OF ARRIVAL INCLUDE...
  NEW ALMELO BY 820 PM CDT...
  LENORA BY 830 PM CDT...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 10005 3950 10016 3957 10016 3956 10028
      3958 10031 3975 10029 3979 10018 3962 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 301DEG 13KT 3964 10020

THEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
658 PM MDT TUE JUL 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             JENNINGS                39.68N 100.29W
07/09/2013  E0.88 INCH       DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BRB