Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
FIRE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
OVER EASTERN COLORADO MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF LIMON STRETCHING
NORTHEAST BETWEEN ST. FRANCIS AND GOODLAND TO SOUTH OF IMPERIAL.  A
DRY LINE WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THEN PARALLELING THE
CO/KS BORDER TO THE SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM ANTICIPATING STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE DRY LINE.  MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT
THE STORMS WILL MOVE AS WHOLE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MEAN FLOW BEING PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORM
TRAINING WILL BE A CONCERN AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  THIS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.  IN ADDITION THE LONG RESENECE TIME
ALONG THE FRONT...PROVIDED THE STORMS DO NOT SHIFT OFF OF THE
FRONT...MAY ALLOW FOR LAND SPOUTS TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE THE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE THE 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL FIRE OFF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH EAST INTO THE AREA.
THE ONLY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...SHOULD THEY BECOME
SEVERE...WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THIS SECOND LINE
MAY MERGE WITH THE LINE FIRING OFF OF THE FRONT AND DRY LINE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR REMAIN BEHIND IT.

FOR THIS EVENING AM EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH VERY LITTLE CINH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.  THE STORM MOTION AND SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE FRONT THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY BEING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ANTICPATE THE TORNADO
THREAT TO DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.  HOWEVER
THE REST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW THE 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
EAST...SO WILL HAVE SOME PRECIP. CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EAST AS A RESULT.

MEANWHILE A SECOND 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO WILL PLACE A MENTION OF ISOLATED CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING IN THE EASTERN FA
THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY AS THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE FA SO HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
EASTERN FA. BY EVENING MOISTURE HAS DECREASED EVEN MORE WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE FA SO WILL INSERT NIL POPS FOR THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE
PERIODS AS WELL.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
OVER A FEW COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO REACH CRITERIA. FUELS MAY BE CRITICAL OR NON-CRITICAL
BASED ON RAINFALL THAT MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA.

COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. READINGS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
COOLING TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BY SATURDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER FLOW
WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY/TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL COME THROUGH THE FLOW FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SUNDAY WARMING TO THE LOWER 90S
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME WEDNESDAY WITH
READINGS INT HE UPPER 70S.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE REGION
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.  THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR AROUND 19Z FOR KGLD AND
WILL APPROACH KMCK AROUND 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
NEAR/OVER THE TAF SITES PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST BY 6Z.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6Z WITH CEILING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
VFR FOR BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1226 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301500-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1226 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013 /126 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA
IS AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM FLAGLER TO SHARON SPRINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             4 S BURLINGTON          39.25N 102.27W
05/29/2013  E1.50 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             CULBERTSON              40.23N 100.84W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             COLBY                   39.39N 101.05W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             SEIBERT                 39.30N 102.87W
05/29/2013  E0.88 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL DRIFTS WERE REPORTED AT THIS LOCATION

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     HAIL             SEIBERT                 39.30N 102.87W
05/29/2013  E1.25 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER FOUND HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN QUARTERS ON HIS
            DECK WHEN HE CAME HOME. TIME IS ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ001-292145-
CHEYENNE-
421 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BIRD CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 10141 3958 10142 3958 10172 4000 10162
      4000 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 214DEG 42KT 3970 10152

MENTZER