Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
808 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

GIVEN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING...HAVE UPPED
POPS TO 50 PERCENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WHILE KEEPING LOWER POPS IN THE WEST. AM NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ITS A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO
TODAY..WITH THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE ROCKIES...VERY POSSIBLY ENSURING THAT AT LEAST SOME
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN AT ANY GIVEN TIME TODAY.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...REGARDING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR OUR WESTERN CWA OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...UPON FURTHER INSPECTION THE OFFICIAL FIRE WEATHER
FUEL STATUS FOR ALL NEBRASKA ZONES WAS SET TO UNFAVORABLE FOR
LARGE FIRE GROWTH AS OF YESTERDAY. THIS BASICALLY MEANS THAT
VEGETATION IS GREEN ENOUGH/WET ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MAJOR FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
USED WHEN BURNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS UNFAVORABLE FUEL
STATUS...WILL BE REMOVING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RADAR FROM KLNX SHOWS THAT MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
HAVE DIMINISHED BUT A RAIN SHIELD REMAINS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE SHOWING UP ON KUEX RADAR...ONE FROM THE
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER FROM CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
WHEN THESE COLLIDE APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW THAT
GOT STARTED BUT SOON WANED.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SURFACE LOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS THAT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST...BUT DOES NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS
FOR NOW.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE NAM
AND THE GFS SHOW A DEFINITIVE INCREASE IN QPF DURING THE MORNING
BUT THE RAP AND 4KM WRF BOTH HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. WILL KEEP SOME
LOW POPS IN FOR THE MORNING...BUT RAMP IT UP LATER THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN MUCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 3500 J/KG. THE SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN STORY: A REPRIEVE FROM THE THREAT OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR AS
TEMPS TUMBLE TO BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN THE THREAT
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUMMER WARMTH RETURNS.

ALOFT: THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE W WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE NRN PLAINS THU NGT-FRI BEFORE OPENING UP AND SLOWLY MIGRATING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. A MODEST SHRTWV
RIDGE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS SUN-MON...AS THE NEXT TROF
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. ALL THE WHILE THE WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK INTO THE NRN USA.

SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU LATE THU AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER...THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT MAY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THE SE FRINGE OF OUR
FCST AREA UNTIL FRI EVNG. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
STRONGER COLD FRONT FRI EVNG. HIGH PRES DRIFTS THRU SUN WITH RETURN
FLOW INTENSIFYING WITH ITS DEPARTURE TO THE E AND REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE LEE TROF...AS LOW PRES HEADS E ALONG THE USA-CAN BORDER. HEAT
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MON-TUE UNTIL THE NEXT COOL FRONT MOVES THRU
TUE NGT OR WED. COOL HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN THU.

HAZARDS: FIRE WX MAY BECOME A CONCERN THU/FRI BETWEEN 2PM-8PM.
ATTM DO NOT ENVISION A RFW BUT FIRE DANGER COULD BE ELEVATED.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS THU-FRI BUT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE LOW DUE TO DIMINISHING MSTR/INSTABILITY. SOME
SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU: THE BACKSIDE OF AN MCS MAY STILL LINGER SE OF THE TRI-CITIES
IN THE MRNG. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS.

THE DRYLINE WILL PRESS INTO THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
992 MB SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE NW FRINGE LATE. THE LFQ OF THE 80 KT ULJ WILL BE
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...BUT HIGH QUALITY MSTR WILL BE RAPIDLY ON THE
DECREASE. AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY E OF HWY 281.

FIRE DANGER: WE NEED TO WATCH ALONG AND W OF HWY 183. USED LOWER
NAM 2M DWPTS WHICH DROPS INTO THE UPR 30S. WINDS LOOK MARGINAL.

FRI: WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A BREEZY DAY W OF HWY 281. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM IN VICINITY OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE SE. FIRE DANGER
COULD BE ELEVATED AGAIN W OF HWY 183.

SAT: BREEZY AND COOL WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN
NORMAL. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES N OF I-80 IN THE AFTN.

SUN: NICE AND COMFORTABLE. A GOOD DAY TO OPEN UP THE HOUSE.

SUN NGT: A STRONG PULSE OF WAA/MSTR TRANSPORT AS 40 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. MSTR WILL INITIALLY BE LACKING SO IT APPEARS THIS
PROCESS WILL NOT DESTABILIZE THE ATMS. JUST TOO SOON SO THE FCST
IS DRY.

MON-TUE: RISK OF TSTMS INCREASES AND PROBABLY PEAKS TUE. WE ARE
PROBABLY TOO LOW ON OUR TEMPS BY 3-5F. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MID 90S SW OF THE TRI-CITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA THIS MORNING.
THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDER MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT TRIED TO DEFINE THE MOST LIKELY TIMES. THE FIRST ROUND
SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH A BETTER
CHANCE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

&&

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
921 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ006-007-019-NEZ074-075-084>086-291445-
ADAMS NE-FRANKLIN NE-JEWELL KS-KEARNEY NE-MITCHELL KS-NUCKOLLS
NE-SMITH KS-WEBSTER NE-
921 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS...WEBSTER...
SOUTHWESTERN NUCKOLLS...EASTERN KEARNEY...EASTERN FRANKLIN...
JEWELL...NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND NORTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL
945 AM CDT...

AT 919 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM UPLAND TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RIVERTON TO LEBANON TO RANDALL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES TO NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS REPLACES THE PREVIOUS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MANKATO...
  UPLAND...
  RIVERTON...
  BURR OAK...
  MONTROSE...
  FORMOSO...
  INAVALE...
  RED CLOUD...
  LOVEWELL STATE PARK...
  CAMPBELL...
  NORMAN...
  WEBBER...
  GUIDE ROCK...
  BOSTWICK...
  COWLES...
  SUPERIOR...
  BLADEN...
  HEARTWELL...
  HARDY...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3979 9856 3998 9891 4027 9904 4066 9877
      4036 9863 4018 9828 4000 9789 4000 9792
      3951 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 208DEG 29KT 4028 9892 4006 9884
          3987 9849 3965 9797

PFANNKUCH