Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

SEVERE WEATHER IS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SFC
LOW IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA. THERE IS A DRY
LINE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WAS
BEGINNING TO FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 330PM.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 20Z MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CIN REMAINING. STRONG SFC AND DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AT 3 PM ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR EXPECTED NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A VERY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WITH TORNADOES
ALREADY REPORTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SOME OF OUR EARLIER
STORMS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ENHANCED THE LOW LEVEL
SHEER WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
AS HIGH AS 200 TO 250 M2/S2. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BECOMING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A QLCS MAY DEVELOP
WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH GOLF
BALL SIZED HAIL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE
LARGER THAN GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LARGELY MOVE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

GIVEN THE RECENT ACTIVE/FAIRLY WET PATTERN OF LATE...THE MAIN
STORY DURING THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A TRANSITION TO QUIETER/DRIER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH SOME FAIRLY LOW POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY HAVE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT POP-FREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO AT LEAST SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND
POSSIBLY AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT ITS TOO
EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN THE LOW 70S AND MID 80S...WITH SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S IN MOST NEB
ZONES...AND TUESDAY THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID-UPPER

STARTING OUT ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AFTER 7 PM...ANY RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...AS WHATEVER INSTABILITY IS LEFT
QUICKLY DIMINISHES. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS QUASI-ZONAL ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED 500
MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER. DURING THE
EVENING...WILL LINGER SOME SOME SLIGHT STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MOST NEB COUNTIES SOUTH
OF I-80 AND W OF HIGHWAY 281. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE SOME 20-30
POPS ONLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SUGGESTION OF SOME MODELS THAT SOME STORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FAR NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A 45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
WEST...LOWERED LOWS SLIGHTLY....AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER
40S/LOW 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 50S EAST.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
STARTS TO OPEN UP A BIT AND MOVE EAST...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...IT
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A DECENT INSTABILITY
AXIS COULD RESIDE JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...NOT THINKING
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT LOCALLY...BUT WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT UNDER A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ALOFT. AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE
40S AND EVEN 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CWA...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND UNFAVORABLE FUEL STATUS FOR
LARGE FIRE GROWTH...WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY ELEVATED/NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT DRY WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WELL SOUTH AND
EAST.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHER THAN THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A
PASSING RAIN SHOWER NORTH OF I-80...LOOKS LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS CWA-
WIDE. THIS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ENHANCED BY RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY STRONGER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN...AND LOWS ARE AIMED
DOWN AROUND 50 MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY MID 40S FAR WEST.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS
AS LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTS
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES STARTS TO BRUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE
ARE FAIRLY SHAKY/LOW COVERAGE STORM CHANCES AT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES GET A BIT BETTER AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH ITS FAR TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS...THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE LOOKS TO TARGET THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THERE ARE NUMEROUS AVIATION CHALLENGES INCLUDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND KGRI THROUGH THIS EVENING. VARYING
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN. FURTHERMORE...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KGRI AND
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWING THROUGH OR NEAR KGRI THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO KGRI THIS EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

&&

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
302030-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
323 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
HAIL AS BIG AS GOLF BALLS...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70
MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BETWEEN NEXT
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME STORMS NEXT
WEEK COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
451 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NE HUNTER             39.33N 98.28W
05/29/2013  E50 MPH          MITCHELL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PFANNKUC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
455 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TORNADO          3 S YORK                40.83N 97.60W
05/29/2013                   YORK               NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN AND SINCE LIFTED.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     HEBRON AIRPORT          40.15N 97.59W
05/29/2013  M61 MPH          THAYER             NE   AWOS

&&

PFANNKUC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
502 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TORNADO          2 NW BENEDICT           41.03N 97.63W
05/29/2013                   YORK               NE   STORM CHASER

            ONGROUND CONE TORNADO.

&&

SROSSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
504 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ007-NEZ076-077-086-087-292230-
CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-JEWELL KS-NUCKOLLS NE-THAYER NE-
504 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAYER...EASTERN NUCKOLLS...
SOUTHERN FILLMORE...SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTHEASTERN JEWELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF JEWELL...EASTERN
NUCKOLLS...THAYER...SOUTHEAST CLAY...AND SOUTHERN FILLMORE COUNTIES.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 55 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  DAVENPORT...
  CARLETON...
  ALEXANDRIA...
  BRUNING...
  ONG...
  SHICKLEY...
  STRANG...
  OHIOWA...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4000 9792 3968 9793 3968 9826 4046 9792
      4047 9736 4000 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 195DEG 33KT 4025 9757

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
507 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TORNADO          2 SSE YORK              40.84N 97.58W
05/29/2013                   YORK               NE   STORM CHASER

            REPORT OF RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO DIFFICULT TO SEE WITH
            OCASSIONAL DEBRIS PUFFS.

&&

SROSSI