Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE FIRST TORNADO WATCH OF THE DAY WAS COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ITS POSTED.

RADAR IS NOW IN VCP 212.

ALOFT: BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS...BETWEEN
COUPLED JET CORES OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS
AS A TROF WAS ADVANCING E. THE UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE WILL INTENSIFY AS
THE TROF TILTS NEGATIVE TNGT. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN FORMING SUN
OVER SD.

SFC: THE POLAR FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO CO-
UT-NV. A LEE LOW WAS ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING S. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES IN...THE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SE INTO NEB TOMORROW AND MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE.

NOW THRU SUNSET: A SHRTWV TROF WAS ADVANCING N THRU THE FCST AREA
AT 20Z AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS. CLEARING WAS
RAPID IN ITS WAKE /CURRENTLY ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND RACING
N/. TSTMS WERE FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE...OVER ERN CO/WRN KS
ATTM. THESE STORMS WILL RACE NE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
RESULT IN EVENTUAL MERGING.

TNGT: EXPECT AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE TO RACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
BEFORE CELLS MERGE INTO A LINE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE LINE WILL
SIGNAL A TRANSITION TO A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. BUT DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY STILL THREATENS LARGE HAIL.

HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE AS LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVNG. TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE 6PM-9PM AND WILL LAST AS LONG AS CELLS
REMAIN DISCRETE.

SKYWARN: PLEASE RELAY ALL REPORTS OF SVR WX TO THE NWS. WE WILL
ALSO BE MONITORING MESONET SITES/FACEBOOK/TWITTER/HAM RADIO.

EXTRA STAFFING IS PLANNED FOR THIS EVNG.

PLEASE FOLLOW THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE SPC AND ALL STATEMENTS/
WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THE NWS HASTINGS.

FOG: WHERE RAIN FALLS TNGT THERE/S POTENTIAL. THE WIND IS THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY. THE RICHARDSON NUMBER SUGGESTS STRATUS MAY
EVOLVE INSTEAD.

SUN: A CLOUDY MRNG PROBABLE. THEN DECREASING CLOUDS WITH SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOPING. SPC HAS SLGT RISK ALONG AND E OF HWY
183.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CINH DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL COOLING.
0-5 KM SHEAR WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS...AND
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER. SO THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE MARGINAL 1" HAIL
AND 60 MPH GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE 500MB UPPER LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OVER NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL VARIATIONS ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT. MUCH OF OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT AT THIS
TIME...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WOULD MAKE PRECIPITATION
MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT...THE 12Z GFS IS
SLOWER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE 500 MB LOW
PLACEMENT. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PART DUE TO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY
AFTERNOON SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STORM SYSTEM DOES NOT WANT TO GO
ANYWHERE QUICKLY...AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT COOL
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES LINGERING ON WEDNESDAY.
INSTABILITY IS LACKING BY THIS POINT IN THE UPPER STORMS LIFE
CYCLE AND THUS AM EXPECTING MORE OF A GENERAL RAIN THREAT AND WILL
NOT BE MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
60-70F RANGE ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TYPICALLY WOULD MEAN DRY
WEATHER...BUT NOT SO MUCH IN THIS CASE. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE
RIDING THROUGH AND OVER THE UPPER RIDGE BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE MORE
ISOLATED GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET UP AND FORECAST MODELS MAY
BE OVERDOING QPF. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT WE DO SEEM TO BE LACKING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT AND REACH THE TERMINAL AFTER DARK. INTERMITTENT
TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CARRY THRU THE NIGHT AND IF CONVECTION IS NOT
ONGOING...LOWER CIG HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY IN THE IFR
RANGE. CIGS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH TSTMS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BETTER CHCS TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
191200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM
KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO BELOIT KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
TENNIS BALLS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

OVERNIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO GRAND ISLAND TO HEBRON NEBRASKA. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LEVEL OF THESE LATE WEEK
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. PLEASE RELAY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HASTINGS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
718 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

NEZ060-061-072>074-190045-
BUFFALO NE-DAWSON NE-GOSPER NE-KEARNEY NE-PHELPS NE-
718 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PHELPS...WESTERN KEARNEY...
NORTHEASTERN GOSPER...SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON AND SOUTHWESTERN BUFFALO
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 715 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JOHNSON LAKE TO 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF LOOMIS TO FUNK...AND MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LEXINGTON...
  FUNK...
  AXTELL...
  OVERTON...
  ELM CREEK...
  ODESSA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 231 AND 275.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4094 9972 4064 9897 4036 9897 4035 9916
      4035 9939 4046 9951 4066 9999 4068 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 201DEG 39KT 4073 9982 4057 9943
          4042 9925

WESELY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
739 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

KSZ006-007-NEZ085-190115-
JEWELL KS-SMITH KS-WEBSTER NE-
739 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEBSTER...NORTHWESTERN JEWELL AND
EASTERN SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 734 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
CAMPBELL TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF SMITH CENTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BELLAIRE...
  INAVALE...
  LEBANON...
  ESBON...
  RED CLOUD...
  COWLES...
  BLUE HILL...
  ROSEMONT...
  GUIDE ROCK...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3958 9879 4000 9874 4000 9873 4013 9873
      4035 9844 4035 9827 4001 9828 4000 9826
      3996 9825 3973 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 217DEG 44KT 4026 9872 3976 9870

WESELY

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