Tornado Warning 2, NWS Glasgow, MT

489 
WWUS55 KGGW 152213
SVSGGW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

MTC085-152230-
/O.CON.KGGW.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130715T2230Z/
ROOSEVELT-
413 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
ROOSEVELT COUNTY...

AT 409 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF
POPLAR...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.

&&

LAT...LON 4850 10525 4827 10523 4832 10551 4846 10552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 267DEG 23KT 4836 10532

$$

BARNWELL
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

STAGE IS SET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUCH FURTHER EAST THROUGH OUR CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO.

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON THE IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING AN EYE ON
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY LINE NOW MOVING OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED
LINE OF STORMS WHICH MARCH EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY.

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT MAY STILL BE SEVERE NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR.

THE STRONGER POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...SAY EARLY TO MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME A WIDE-SPREAD 15G25KT WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CASE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LITTLE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ANY
STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE SUBDUED BY THE LACK OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT...LIGHT ASCENT REMAINS POST-
FRONTAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING FROM TIME TO TIME.

BY MID-WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES REGIONS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN TO OUR REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING RIDGE RETROGRADING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME
RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES...INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ON SUNDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...MONDAY LOOKS DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRIVEN BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THOUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE STATE
BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
311 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

MTZ017>020-023>027-061-062-160915-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-
MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN VALLEY-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
311 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.