Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

STAGE IS SET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUCH FURTHER EAST THROUGH OUR CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO.

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON THE IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING AN EYE ON
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY LINE NOW MOVING OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED
LINE OF STORMS WHICH MARCH EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY.

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT MAY STILL BE SEVERE NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR.

THE STRONGER POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...SAY EARLY TO MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME A WIDE-SPREAD 15G25KT WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CASE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LITTLE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ANY
STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE SUBDUED BY THE LACK OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT...LIGHT ASCENT REMAINS POST-
FRONTAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING FROM TIME TO TIME.

BY MID-WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES REGIONS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN TO OUR REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING RIDGE RETROGRADING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON NW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME
RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES...INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ON SUNDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...MONDAY LOOKS DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRIVEN BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THOUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE STATE
BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
311 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

MTZ017>020-023>027-061-062-160915-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-
MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN VALLEY-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
311 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
408 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TORNADO          11 SW BREDETTE          48.39N 105.45W
07/15/2013                   ROOSEVELT          MT   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND ON STATE ROUTE 13
            NEAR MILE MARKER 23 AT 4 PM.

&&

PROTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
418 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             1 S PORT OF SCOBEY      48.98N 105.41W
07/15/2013  E1.00 INCH       DANIELS            MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
420 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             6 NW SCOBEY             48.85N 105.51W
07/15/2013  E1.75 INCH       DANIELS            MT   PUBLIC

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
444 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     TORNADO          22 N POPLAR             48.43N 105.20W
07/15/2013                   ROOSEVELT          MT   PUBLIC

            TORNADO IS VISIBLE 22 MILES NORTH OF POPLAR.

&&

PROTON

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