Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TULSA TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE TO SOUTH
OF I-20 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE OVER KANSAS SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WE WILL SEE THE FRONT START TO LIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY
EVENING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL SINK BACK TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT PRETTY
GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO THE
EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  56  80  54  66 /  80  20   5  50  70
WACO, TX              76  56  79  59  72 /  60  30  10  30  60
PARIS, TX             72  53  76  47  60 /  80  10   5  40  70
DENTON, TX            74  52  81  50  63 /  80  10   5  50  70
MCKINNEY, TX          73  52  77  52  63 /  80  20   5  50  70
DALLAS, TX            76  56  80  56  66 /  80  20   5  50  70
TERRELL, TX           74  55  78  56  64 /  80  20   5  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         76  57  80  59  69 /  60  30  10  30  60
TEMPLE, TX            78  58  80  61  72 /  60  30  10  30  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  53  82  52  65 /  70  20   5  60  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY...AND SOUTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON.

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

TXZ092-093-311215-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
643 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY
  GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 643 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 4 FROM NEAR GAINESVILLE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR DENISON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3387 9689 3383 9676 3385 9669 3392 9667
      3390 9659 3384 9662 3373 9638 3340 9639
      3344 9748 3391 9748 3392 9748 3382 9744
      3390 9719 3380 9721 3372 9714 3382 9705
      3385 9709 3389 9698 3395 9699 3396 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 321DEG 27KT 3357 9714

DUNN

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