Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM EAST OF KLTS TO WEST OF KSJT AT 23Z WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION. CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
KDUC. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. A SIMILAR SITUATION IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS CONVECTION WILL BE THE STRONGEST NORTH THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX.

MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTED ARRIVAL AROUND 07Z AT KACT
AND BY 09Z ACROSS THE METROPLEX. THE MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING
WILL LIFT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
CIGS ABOVE 4 KFT AROUND 18Z.

WITH A DEEP H500 UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTH AT 15-22KT WITH
G28-30KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013/
LOW COVERAGE SUPERCELLS ARE FORMING FROM WICHITA FALLS SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS SWEETWATER. TORNADO WATCH 254 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO DECENT HODOGRAPHS AND MLCAPE VALUES
ABOVE 2000 J/KG...THE BEST FORCING IS FARTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...SO THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AS LOWER LEVELS STABILIZE AND THE STORMS MOVE INTO LESS STABLE
AIR. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH CURRENT AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE EAST MOVING
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AFTER THEY EXIT...AREAS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR SHOULD STAY DRY.

ON FRIDAY NORTH TX WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH NO PRECIP
FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN TOO
WET AND UNSTABLE TODAY...IS UNSTABLE TOMORROW AS WELL. IF LATER
GUIDANCE INCREASES STORM CHANCES FRIDAY...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE
INCREASED.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CLIMB SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES. PRECIP WILL BE MORE LIKELY
SATURDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA...SPREADING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES BY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...SOUTH WINDS...AND GULF MOISTURE TO KEEP THE
HUMIDITY UP. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  77  86  65 /  20   5  10  30  50
WACO, TX              75  93  76  91  68 /  10   5  10  20  40
PARIS, TX             72  87  76  83  62 /  20   5  10  40  50
DENTON, TX            75  90  76  84  64 /  20   5  10  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          74  91  76  85  64 /  20   5  10  40  50
DALLAS, TX            75  94  77  89  65 /  20   5  10  30  50
TERRELL, TX           74  93  77  91  65 /  20   5  10  30  50
CORSICANA, TX         75  93  77  92  68 /  10   5  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            76  93  76  92  69 /  10   5  10  10  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  94  75  85  64 /  20   5  10  30  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
305 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO DECATUR TO COOPER LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NORTH OF EASTLAND TO DECATUR TO COOPER LINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             2 SE RINGGOLD           33.80N  97.93W
05/30/2013  E0.75 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWYS 81 AND 82

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             7 NE NOCONA             33.85N  97.64W
05/30/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NOCONA VFD REPORTED QUARTER HAIL AT LAKE NOCONA