Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.AVIATION...
TSRA HAVE AFFECTED THE METROPLEX TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE TO THE SOUTH. EXPECTING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY TO PUSH
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z BUT ANOTHER CLUSTER TO THE SOUTH
SHOULD BE ARRIVING ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE
TSRA/VCTS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 02Z ACROSS
THE METROPLEX SITES.

KACT SHOULD SEE SOME ON AND OFF AGAIN ACTIVITY AS WELL THROUGH
02Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH 02-08Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH A RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS 07-09Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS
19-20Z ON THURSDAY.    75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013/
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO SWEETWATER. MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS. AS OF 20Z THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE...LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE ADDING UNFOCUSED LIFT TO THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BEGINS TO SWEEP THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RED
RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE GOING COMPLETELY
DRY ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT WEATHER CHANGE...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT...ON THE LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

VANSPEYBROECK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  74  91  74 /  40  20  10   0  10
WACO, TX              73  88  75  90  75 /  40  20   5   0  10
PARIS, TX             70  83  72  86  73 /  40  20  20   0  10
DENTON, TX            72  87  73  90  72 /  50  20  10   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  85  74  88  73 /  40  20  10   0  10
DALLAS, TX            74  86  77  90  77 /  40  20  10   0  10
TERRELL, TX           72  86  75  89  74 /  40  20  10   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  75  90  76 /  40  20   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  87  75  90  75 /  40  20   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  87  72  92  72 /  50  20  10   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
320 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 EAST CORRIDOR. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
EVENING WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH MORE DISCRETE
SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING WHERE STORMS TRAIN ACROSS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
LESSEN OVERNIGHT...AS THE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 380 CORRIDOR FROM GRAHAM TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL RETURN TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
LATE SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 EAST CORRIDOR.

05/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             4 ENE DENTON            33.24N  97.09W
05/29/2013  E1.25 INCH       DENTON             TX   PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
713 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANSFIELD               32.57N  97.13W
05/29/2013                   TARRANT            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            18 INCH TREE FELL ON A MOBILE HOME IN BREEZY OAKS MHP.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             DENTON                  33.22N  97.15W
05/29/2013  E2.00 INCH       DENTON             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IN DENTON AT MCKINNEY AND 288

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
812 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE ARLINGTON         32.77N  97.10W
05/29/2013                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED A PICTURE OF A LARGE TREE BLOWN ONTO A CAR NEAR
            HWY 360 AND GREEN OAKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
830 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

TXZ091-102-300200-
MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-
830 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL WISE COUNTY

AT 830 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVORD...CHICO AND
FORESTBURG.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3370 9758 3364 9749 3343 9749 3320 9772
      3330 9789
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 217DEG 33KT 3332 9774