Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST SAT JUL 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW WILL COVER ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PATTERN ARE
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS GOOD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING WESTWARD INTO APACHE COUNTY FROM NEW MEXICO. OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THIS SECOND AREA SHOULD PRODUCE TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE LOW DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS EVENING.

PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH MONDAY AND
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS HAVE THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS HAVE LIGHT
FLOW ALOFT OVER AZ ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTER MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER SRN NEVADA
TO NEW MEXICO. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO AZ WITH THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING MORE N-S OVERHEAD. WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME
SLIGHT DRYING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND FAR
NORTHERN AZ. THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE MASSAGED DOWNWARD JUST A FEW
POINTS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO PRESCOTT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE
GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SOUTH AND WEST
OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSJN LINE...ELSEWHERE ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION DIMINISHING AFT
03-06Z...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT PSBL. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
705 AM MST SAT JUL 20 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-210700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
705 AM MST SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

MOIST AND UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY TO
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. STORMS WILL FIRST
INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
MOGOLLON RIM. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD INTO YAVAPAI AND
GILA COUNTIES. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT
HEAVY RAINS...WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
318 PM MST SAT JUL 20 2013

AZZ008-037-202245-
YAVAPAI AZ-
318 PM MST SAT JUL 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 345 PM MST

AT 312 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHINO VALLEY...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 11260 3487 11264 3486 11245 3478 11242
      3470 11242
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 085DEG 7KT 3479 11251

MCCOLLUM