Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

685 
WGUS75 KFGZ 212243
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST SUN JUL 21 2013

AZC005-212345-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130721T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
343 PM MST SUN JUL 21 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 335 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ANTELOPE CREEK BASIN PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ANTELOPE
CANYON NEAR SR 98...PAGE...LE CHEE AND BIG FIVE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3673 11147 3693 11147 3696 11133 3653 11120
      3648 11134

$$

RB

455 
WGUS75 KFGZ 212342
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
442 PM MST SUN JUL 21 2013

AZC005-212349-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130721T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
442 PM MST SUN JUL 21 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE ANTELOPE CREEK BASIN. ANY FLOOD 
WATERS IN THE SLOT CANYONS WILL RECEDE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE 
HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING AT THIS TIME. 

LAT...LON 3673 11147 3693 11147 3696 11133 3653 11120
      3648 11134

$$

RB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1220 PM MST SUN JUL 21 2013

COR HEADLINE SECTION AND UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH 1 AM MST MONDAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER ARIZONA FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

1220 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NNW FROM THE PHX AREA
INTO SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. STRONG STORMS ALSO OVER THE CHUSKA
MTNS NORTH OF WINDOW ROCK.

950 AM...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA SOUNDINGS AND SAT PW IMAGERY SHOW 1 TO 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SW AZ THROWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST
OF LINE FROM JACOB LAKE TO PAYSON. EAST OF THIS LINE CU DEVELOPMENT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

PROGS SHOW THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER WESTERN BAJA PENINSULA TO BEGIN
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS
WILL FIRE FIRST LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST SHOULD DELAY STRONG
STORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF I-17 AND HIGHWAY 89 UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BAJA LOW IS EXPECTED TO AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES.

THE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING COUNT FOR THIS FORECAST AREA FROM NOON
SAT-5 AM SUNDAY WAS OVER 9000. SEVERAL STREAM GAGES HAVE SHOWN RISES
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...400 AM...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY...IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLOW RE-POSITIONING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH. STEERING
FLOW HAS CHANGED OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERLY...TO A SOUTH-EASTERLY
TRAJECTORY. VERY HIGH PW AND DEWPOINT VALUES WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-17 CORRIDOR. THE SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD TODAY...WHICH ALONG WITH A RAIN-SOAKED BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD ACT AGAINST THE DEEP MOISTURE AND KEEP THINGS FROM
GETTING EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE. EASTERLY COMPONENTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
STEERING FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH STRUGGLES TO BUILD
STRENGTH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. THE
THREAT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES IN
THE LCR WILL EXIST IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER
TUESDAY...STREAMLINES BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN WESTERLY AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER...WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR
FOR THE MUCH OF SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE HAVE BROUGHT POPS
DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO REFLECT THIS TREND. THIS TREND
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOST MODELS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE
RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR/IFR MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW-KSJN LINE.
ELSEWHERE SCT SHRA/TSRA. MVFR/IFR AND GUSTY WINDS PSBL IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TODAY AND MONDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE UNDER A MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY 1 PM MST UNTIL 1 AM MST MONDAY FOR ALL OF
APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

&&

PUBLIC.........DL / PETERSON
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN JUL 21 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-220800-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
945 AM MST SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MST TODAY UNTIL 1 AM MST
MONDAY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...SEE PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DAY TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THEN MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF  THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.