Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
815 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAIN EASTERN WAVE MOVING INTO NE GA AT
THE MOMENT. THE CURRENT RADAR LOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS NE GA WHICH IS DEFINITELY BEING
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO STAY ACROSS NORTH GA BUT BOTH OUR LOCAL WRF AND THE HRRR SHOW A
BIT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP UP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
02-04Z TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS OUR AREA IN
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THU IN THIS EASTERLY
FLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE DAY THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN THIS ATMOSPHERE
BUT THE CAPES AND LIS BOTH PEAK BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RISING
THICKNESSES TODAY HOWEVER PRECIP/CLOUDS MAY OFFSET THE WARMING A
LITTLE. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE DROPPING THURSDAY YIELDING A SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS. STAYING CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS AS THEY STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

01

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. ONLY CHANGE WERE TO THE POPS ON
SUNDAY WHERE OUR NEIGHBORS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIKELY CHANCE
OF POPS. DECIDED TO GO WITH THAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
UPDATED THE DEWPOINTS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WITH NEW GUIDANCE.
HAVE ATTACHED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR BREVITY.

ARG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013/
A TRANSITION TAKES PLACE THIS PERIOD FROM EAST FLOW ALOFT TO
WESTERLY FLOW WITH A UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR WITH THIS CHANGE UNTIL THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN THE EUROPEAN MOVES THE TROUGH
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AS A STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE MID U.S.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TENDING TO
MAXIMIZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST N OF GA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO GA. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL EXCEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM SATURDAY ON.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TSTMS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST...BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF AREA. CIGS MAINLY
VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS IN TSRA/RA UNTIL 02Z. EXPECTING CIGS
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT PERIOD. VSBYS MAINLY VFR...BUT AGAIN SOME
MVFR VSBYS IN TSRA/RA...AND WEAKENING TSTMS UNTIL 02Z. WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER MVFR CONDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS. MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY CHANGE IN
PATTERN...HENCE WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR OCCURRENCES TOMORROW FOR MORE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIG AND VSBY. MODERATE ON WINDS.

37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  92  71  90 /  40  30  30  40
ATLANTA         74  91  73  88 /  40  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     69  88  68  84 /  40  50  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  91  71  89 /  40  40  30  50
COLUMBUS        73  94  73  90 /  20  30  30  50
GAINESVILLE     73  90  73  88 /  40  40  30  50
MACON           71  92  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            71  92  71  90 /  40  40  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  71  91  70  89 /  40  30  30  50
VIDALIA         72  93  72  89 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1222 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181630-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1222 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF
A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WARRENTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH BE
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
903 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

GAZ079-080-091-180130-
903 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN TALBOT...MARION AND TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 902 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HOWARD...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TALBOT...MARION AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HOWARD...CHARING...FIVE
POINTS...MARION ESTATES...OAKLAND...BRANTLEY...TAZEWELL...JUNIPER...
MAUK...BOX SPRINGS AND JUNCTION CITY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8454 3249 8465 3250 8464 3253 8464
      3252 8467 3253 8467 3266 8431 3250 8421
      3241 8436 3243 8436 3243 8438 3240 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 073DEG 8KT 3254 8436

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