Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAIN EASTERN WAVE MOVING INTO NE GA AT
THE MOMENT. THE CURRENT RADAR LOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS NE GA WHICH IS DEFINITELY BEING GENERATED
BY THIS WAVE. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO STAY
ACROSS NORTH GA BUT BOTH OUR LOCAL WRF AND THE HRRR SHOW A BIT MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP UP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH 02-04Z
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS OUR AREA IN MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THU IN THIS EASTERLY FLOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DAY THU.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN THIS ATMOSPHERE BUT THE CAPES AND LIS
BOTH PEAK BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. TODAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RISING THICKNESSES TODAY
HOWEVER PRECIP/CLOUDS MAY OFFSET THE WARMING A LITTLE. H5 HEIGHTS
WILL BE DROPPING THURSDAY YIELDING A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. STAYING
CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS AS THEY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

01

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. ONLY CHANGE WERE TO THE POPS ON
SUNDAY WHERE OUR NEIGHBORS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIKELY CHANCE
OF POPS. DECIDED TO GO WITH THAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
UPDATED THE DEWPOINTS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WITH NEW GUIDANCE.
HAVE ATTACHED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR BREVITY.

ARG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013/
A TRANSITION TAKES PLACE THIS PERIOD FROM EAST FLOW ALOFT TO
WESTERLY FLOW WITH A UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR WITH THIS CHANGE UNTIL THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN THE EUROPEAN MOVES THE TROUGH
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AS A STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE MID U.S.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TENDING TO
MAXIMIZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST N OF GA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO GA. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL EXCEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM SATURDAY ON.

BDL

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE 4000-6000FT RANGE AND NOT EXPECTING THINGS TO
GO BKN OR OVC. SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEGUN POPPING UP AND SHOULD SEE MORE
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STA OUT OF THE TAF SITES TILL 21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO SHOULD SEE SHRA/TSRA DIMINISH BY 02-04Z.
WINDS ARE TURNING TO THE EAST AND SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  92  71  90 /  40  30  30  40
ATLANTA         74  91  73  88 /  40  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     69  88  68  84 /  40  50  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  91  71  89 /  40  40  30  50
COLUMBUS        73  94  73  90 /  20  30  30  50
GAINESVILLE     73  90  73  88 /  40  40  30  50
MACON           71  92  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            71  92  71  90 /  40  40  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  71  91  70  89 /  40  30  30  50
VIDALIA         72  93  72  89 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1222 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181630-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1222 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF
A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WARRENTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH BE
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
742 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E GREENSBORO          33.58N 83.10W
07/17/2013                   GREENE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.HIGHWAY 278 BLOCKED. STRAIGHT LINE
            WINDS.

&&

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
746 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             2 WSW DACULA            33.98N 83.93W
07/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       GWINNETT           GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR DACULA.

&&

LBELANGE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
806 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

GAZ083-180030-
806 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN TWIGGS COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 759 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF STRONG WINDS THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT 7 MILES
NORTH OF MYRICKS MILL TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF DANVILLE... AND MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS WIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS TWIGGS COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8349 3252 8354 3263 8354 3266 8357
      3268 8361 3274 8360 3274 8357 3282 8349
      3284 8351 3285 8350 3289 8340 3258 8323
      3246 8349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 061DEG 30KT 3287 8345 3272 8335
          3262 8321

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