Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
355 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE...THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES AND BEGINS TO
SHIFT A BIT EAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROF AND MOISTURE
PLUME WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. THIS TROPICAL PLUME
CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES TO KS/CO
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND PUSH INTO NW GA BY 00Z-06Z FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A BIT DRIER AIR MASS INTO NW GA FRI MORNING BUT
NOT SURE IF THAT FRONT WILL MOVE THAT FAR BY 12Z FRI. WILL DEFIANTLY
HAVE TO MONITOR ITS MOVEMENT. WITH INCREASED LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING FRONT...MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY THU...EXPECT INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP IN MIND...WITH THE SATURATED SOILS
AND A TONE OF DROUGHT STRICKEN TREES...IT WILL NOT TAKE SEVERE
WINDS...60MPH OR GREATER...TO KNOCK TREES DOWN.

01

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTH GA BEHIND THE FRONT. ADJUSTED
DAYTIME TEMPS UP A BIT NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE DRIER AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS STORM COVERAGE THERE. THE
GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AND CURRENT FORECAST STILL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF
T.S. CHANTAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST FORECAST SUGGEST NORTH
AND CENTRAL GA WILL NOT BE EFFECTED BY THE STORM OVER THE
WEEKEND... BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD SEE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREAD IN OVER THE AREA... AND CONTINUE THE WET PATTERN INTO MID
NEXT WEEK.

39

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013/

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS. MODELS HAVE THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY DIFFUSE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GA ON SATURDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY COULD STILL
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY UPON THE TRACK OF CHANTAL. THE EXACT MOVEMENT OF CHANTAL
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RIDGING BUILDING
IN ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALL INTERESTS IN GA SHOULD
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR T.S. CHANTAL OVER THE WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER
TO NHC FOR THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM
2 PM TODAY UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT WILL BE ALLOWED CONTINUE AS THIS
AREA HAS SEEN SO MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ESPECIALLY LOW... AND AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN A
SHORT TIME COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE TN VALLEY...
THEN INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW A VERY WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT... A LARGER- SCALE FLOOD THREAT IS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A
MUCH LARGER AREA... DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WILL LET THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL AND POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IF CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WARRANT. 39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013/
18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE RAIN AT THE TAF SITES BUT THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS
WILL CAUSE SOME ISSUES WHEN THEY DO REACH AN AIRFIELD. WINDS ARE
MAINLY OUT OF T5HE WEST BUT WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WINDS HAVE
BEEN TURNING EAST TO SE. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
WITH SOME GUST IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS VFR
AND SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH 08Z-10Z WILL SE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR SUNRISE WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BY 15-16Z THU.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  87  70  86 /  60  70  60  50
ATLANTA         72  86  71  86 /  60  70  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     68  82  66  84 /  60  70  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    72  87  70  86 /  60  70  40  20
COLUMBUS        74  88  72  87 /  50  70  60  60
GAINESVILLE     72  85  69  86 /  60  70  60  40
MACON           72  89  72  87 /  50  70  70  60
ROME            72  88  69  86 /  60  60  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  70  86 /  60  70  60  40
VIDALIA         73  89  73  87 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...CLARKE...HALL...JACKSON...MADISON...OGLETHORPE...
WILKES.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1218 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1218 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GROUND IS SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
OR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO LET THEIR GUARD DOWN
DURING THIS PROLONGED CONVECTIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERIOD.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE HEAVY
RAINS HAVE FALLEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AVERAGING AROUND HALF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH... SOILS ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED AND
RIVER LEVELS ARE HIGH...THUS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING... WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH SATURATED SOILS...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
NOT BE AS PROLONGED OR WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK...THERE
WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. NORTH GEORGIA WILL AGAIN HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT ACCUMULATING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY LEAD TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
305 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ090-091-102-103-101945-
305 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WEBSTER...
STEWART...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BROOKLYN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
WEBSTER...STEWART...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND CHARLES...WESTVILLE...BROOKLYN...LOUVALE...ZELLOBEE...
RENFROE...CHRISTOPHER...MANTA...CUSSETA...LUMPKIN...KIMBROUGH...
SEMINOLE...DUMAS...CENTERPOINT AND WESTON. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT
TO MINOR FLOODING.

THE HIGH RAIN TOTALS SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT WET SOILS FOR AREA TREES. THIS WILL ALLOW THESE TREES TO
FALL DUE TO WINDS MUCH LOWER THAN IN A TYPICAL SEASON...AS LOW AS 30
MPH IN SOME CASES.

&&

LAT...LON 3235 8444 3196 8450 3197 8489 3237 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 297DEG 3KT 3215 8469

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ031-102000-
335 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN PAULDING COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER YORKVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PAULDING COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE YORKVILLE...UNION...HIRAM...DALLAS...NEW HOPE AND
NEW GEORGIA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THE HIGH RAIN TOTALS SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT WET SOILS FOR AREA TREES. THIS WILL ALLOW THESE TREES TO
FALL DUE TO WINDS MUCH LOWER THAN IN A TYPICAL SEASON...AS LOW AS 30
MPH IN SOME CASES.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8498 3404 8494 3397 8478 3395 8474
      3381 8474 3377 8488 3379 8492 3387 8504
      3390 8503 3391 8505 3395 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 304DEG 5KT 3394 8496

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ020-031-032-102015-
351 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN PAULDING...BARTOW
AND COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CROSS ROADS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PAULDING...BARTOW AND COBB COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CROSS ROADS...ACWORTH...
LOST MOUNTAIN PARK...KENNESAW...DUE WEST...KENNESAW STATE
UNIVERSITY...JIM R MILLER PARK...SANDY PLAINS...WHITE WATER PARK...
DOBBINS AIR RESERVE BASE...MABLETON...SMYRNA AND MARIETTA. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THE HIGH RAIN TOTALS SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT WET SOILS FOR AREA TREES. THIS WILL ALLOW THESE TREES TO
FALL DUE TO WINDS MUCH LOWER THAN IN A TYPICAL SEASON...AS LOW AS 30
MPH IN SOME CASES.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8444 3387 8446 3380 8457 3390 8473
      3396 8475 3401 8485 3409 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 298DEG 15KT 3399 8474

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ078-079-089>091-102030-
351 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 35 MPH WINDS IN TALBOT...
MUSCOGEE...MARION...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER UPATOI...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TALBOT...MUSCOGEE...MARION...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ELLERSLIE...MIDLAND...UPATOI...BOX SPRINGS...JUNIPER...MARION
ESTATES...VISTA TERRACE...NORTH FORT BENNING...EELBECK/WEST FORT
BENNING...BENNING HILLS AND SAND HILL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THE HIGH RAIN TOTALS SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT WET SOILS FOR AREA TREES. THIS WILL ALLOW THESE TREES TO
FALL DUE TO WINDS MUCH LOWER THAN IN A TYPICAL SEASON...AS LOW AS 30
MPH IN SOME CASES.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 8451 3240 8494 3264 8481 3265 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 359DEG 19KT 3259 8472

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANTIOCH                 33.95N 85.16W
07/10/2013                   POLK               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            POLK COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN THE
            ANTIOCH AREA.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
403 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ089-102030-
403 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN MUSCOGEE
COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AIRPORT THE
THUNDERSTORM WAS DRIFTING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS MUSCOGEE
COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM
INCLUDE COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AIRPORT...HIGHLAND
PARK...AVONDALE...SAINT MARYS HILLS...BENNING PARK...BENNING
HILLS...CARTER ACRES...COLUMBUS...EDGEWOOD...KENWOOD...ROSE
HILL...LAUREL HILLS...GREEN ISLAND HILLS AND BIBB CITY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THE HIGH RAIN TOTALS SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT WET SOILS FOR AREA TREES. THIS WILL ALLOW THESE TREES TO
FALL DUE TO WINDS MUCH LOWER THAN IN A TYPICAL SEASON...AS LOW AS 30
MPH IN SOME CASES.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 8506 3257 8486 3239 8493 3238 8499
      3241 8499 3243 8497 3246 8501 3249 8500
      3258 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 128DEG 2KT 3252 8495