Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Atlanta, GA

154 
WGUS62 KFFC 101921
FFAFFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ023>025-027-036-038-039-110600-
/O.CON.KFFC.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-130711T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-CLARKE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...ATHENS
321 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA. 

* UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY

* OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL 
  GEORGIA HAVE RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 
  REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. WHILE SOILS ARE 
  SATURATED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA...SOILS ARE PARTICULARLY 
  WET IN THE WATCH AREA. IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH...
  IT WILL TAKE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PRODUCE 
  FLASH FLOODING. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD END IN THE NEXT 2 TO 5 HOURS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW AND PRODUCING A LOT OF RAIN. THEY WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING...THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS IN ATHENS. OTHER THAN THAT...DID A QUICK
UPDATE TO THE POPS FOR TOMORROW AS HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
DEVELOPMENT WILL START ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. DECIDED THE TREND
HIGHER WITH THE POPS IN THE NORTH MOUNTAINS AND THEN SLOWLY BRING
THEM UP IN THE METRO TOWARDS THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS APPEAR TO
BE FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD MOISTURE PLUME
THAT WAS OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST WEEK. THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE SO THESE SHOWER ARE NOT PUMPING OUT
AS MUCH PRECIP AS WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ALSO AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 03-05Z. THE
CURRENT FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
SHOWING A WEAK BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND
THE WEAK BOUNDARY STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITIES PEEKING AROUND 18Z... SHOULD SEE MORE
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL QPF NUMBERS ARE SHOWING AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY UNDER THE STRONGER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTH GA
LATE ON THURSDAY THEN STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO GROUNDS
BEING ALREADY VERY SATURATED. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS ON JUST WHAT AFFECT THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRAILING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ON T.S. CHANTAL THAT IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE NORTH AND JUST EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS
IN GA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR T.S. CHANTAL OVER
THE WEEKEND. /39

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US WILL BEGIN TO
DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE SE STATES ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN
TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FOR THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
POPS SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN GA...JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWFA.

WITH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY UPON WHERE CHANTAL
TRACKS. IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST TRACK FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR AT TAF TIME...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE. MORE AT AHN AND
POSSIBLY MCN THAN OTHER SITES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LOW CIGS
AT METRO TAFS. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NORTH TODAY SO HAVE KEPT TREND OF PROB30 AT 19Z...BUT ADDED
PREVAILING SHRA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. FOR NOW KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON WHO GETS RAIN THAT MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY SW WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND 3-7KT DURING THE DAY EXCEPT OF COURSE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  87  71 /  70  50  70  30
ATLANTA         88  71  86  71 /  70  50  70  30
BLAIRSVILLE     85  67  82  66 /  70  60  70  30
CARTERSVILLE    88  71  87  70 /  70  60  70  30
COLUMBUS        90  73  88  73 /  60  50  70  40
GAINESVILLE     87  71  85  70 /  70  60  70  30
MACON           90  71  89  72 /  40  40  70  40
ROME            89  71  88  71 /  70  60  60  30
PEACHTREE CITY  88  70  87  71 /  70  50  70  30
VIDALIA         91  73  89  73 /  30  30  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
218 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GROUND IS SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
OR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO LET THEIR GUARD DOWN
DURING THIS PROLONGED CONVECTIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERIOD.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND HALF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH... SOILS ARE EXTREMELY
SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS ARE HIGH...THUS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 40 MPH. WITH SATURATED SOILS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO
DOWN TREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
NOT BE AS PROLONGED OR WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK...THERE
WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. NORTH GEORGIA WILL AGAIN HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT ACCUMULATING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY LEAD TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

GAZ025-027-036>038-100330-
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN OGLETHORPE...
OCONEE...MADISON...CLARKE AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1050 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS
OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...MADISON...CLARKE AND JACKSON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND SANFORD...CENTER...BEECHWOOD
HILLS...STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF GEORGIA...JAMES HOLLAND YOUTH
SPORTS COMPLEX...SANDY CREEK RECREATION AREA...WHITEHALL...OCONEE
HEIGHTS...BARRETTS
MILL...ATHENS...BISHOP...WATKINSVILLE...NEESE...BARNETT SHOALS AND
HULL. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

THE HIGH RAIN TOTALS SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT WET SOILS FOR AREA TREES. THIS WILL ALLOW THESE TREES TO
FALL DUE TO WINDS MUCH LOWER THAN IN A TYPICAL SEASON...AS LOW AS 30
MPH IN SOME CASES.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8315 3377 8324 3381 8346 3389 8347
      3409 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 275DEG 11KT 3397 8335

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1113 PM EDT TUE JUL 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHENS                  33.96N 83.38W
07/09/2013                   CLARKE             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ATHENS-CLARKE POLICE RELAYED A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON A
            HOUSE ALONG WITH SEVERAL POWERPOLES AS WELL.

&&

AGIBBS