Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHEAST MS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WESTERN GA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST CONGEALING WITH THE SE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FOR OVERNIGHT...WV LOOP SHOWS A GOOD PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SE IN THE FLOW ACROSS W KY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
DEVELOP SCT ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT OVERNIGHT...SCT SHRA/TSRA SEEM VERY
REASONABLE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS REMAIN THE SAME ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION...BL WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT (AOB
15K)...SO MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY.
EVEN THOUGH THE ATMOS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT THE
SURFACE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR REMAIN VERY WEAK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH DAY 7. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SURFACE RIDGE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE SOUTHEAST BY WEEKS
END. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN US AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HAVE
COOLED EXTENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. STILL LOOKING
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND...AND EXPECT THIS UPWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS. ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DROP IN POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
AS A RESULT.

31/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY AND SHEAR AXIS ALOFT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A CONVERGENCE
ZONE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SE. HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THE
13Z HRRR SOLUTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA AT ATL BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER TOMORROW AS SHEAR AXIX SLIPS
EAST OVER THE CWFA TOMROROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CONVECTIVE TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  87  69  90 /  50  50  20  30
ATLANTA         70  86  71  88 /  50  50  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  81  64  86 /  40  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  88  69  89 /  50  40  20  30
COLUMBUS        71  91  72  92 /  60  60  20  30
GAINESVILLE     68  85  70  87 /  50  40  20  30
MACON           71  89  71  90 /  60  60  20  30
ROME            68  89  69  91 /  40  40  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  87  69  88 /  50  50  20  30
VIDALIA         72  88  73  92 /  60  60  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

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