Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHEAST MS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WESTERN GA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST CONGEALING WITH THE SE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FOR OVERNIGHT...WV LOOP SHOWS A GOOD PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SE IN THE FLOW ACROSS W KY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
DEVELOP SCT ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT OVERNIGHT...SCT SHRA/TSRA SEEM VERY
REASONABLE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS REMAIN THE SAME ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION...BL WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT (AOB
15K)...SO MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY.
EVEN THOUGH THE ATMOS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT THE
SURFACE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR REMAIN VERY WEAK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH DAY 7. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SURFACE RIDGE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE SOUTHEAST BY WEEKS
END. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN US AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HAVE
COOLED EXTENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. STILL LOOKING
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND...AND EXPECT THIS UPWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS. ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DROP IN POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
AS A RESULT.

31/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY AND SHEAR AXIS ALOFT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A CONVERGENCE
ZONE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SE. HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THE
13Z HRRR SOLUTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA AT ATL BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER TOMORROW AS SHEAR AXIX SLIPS
EAST OVER THE CWFA TOMROROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CONVECTIVE TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  87  69  90 /  50  50  20  30
ATLANTA         70  86  71  88 /  50  50  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  81  64  86 /  40  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  88  69  89 /  50  40  20  30
COLUMBUS        71  91  72  92 /  60  60  20  30
GAINESVILLE     68  85  70  87 /  50  40  20  30
MACON           71  89  71  90 /  60  60  20  30
ROME            68  89  69  91 /  40  40  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  87  69  88 /  50  50  20  30
VIDALIA         72  88  73  92 /  60  60  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
547 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
547 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...GENERALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

GAZ097-109-241930-
238 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GODWINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RHINE...UNION...FIVE POINTS...
GODWINSVILLE...EASTMAN...PLAINFIELD...CHESTER AND CADWELL. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8315 3227 8289 3196 8322 3211 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 206DEG 6KT 3214 8318

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW DUBLIN             32.50N 82.95W
06/24/2013                   LAURENS            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 257
            AND DUBLIN EASTMAN ROAD.

&&

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

GAZ095-096-107-241945-
312 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN PULASKI...BLECKLEY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HAYNEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PULASKI...BLECKLEY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BROWNDALE...
CLINCHFIELD...GROVANIA...HAYNEVILLE...KLONDIKE...SAND BED AND
MAGNOLIA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 8371 3252 8355 3247 8349 3246 8349
      3246 8348 3244 8344 3229 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 226DEG 6KT 3239 8358

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
336 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

GAZ095-105-107-242015-
336 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN PULASKI...DOOLY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER UNADILLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PULASKI...DOOLY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE UNADILLA...HENDERSON...
ELKO...BROWNDALE...GROVE PARK AND GROVANIA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 8382 3242 8375 3232 8356 3219 8369
      3229 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 216DEG 5KT 3230 8373

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
356 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

GAZ106-108-242045-
356 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILCOX AND CRISP COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 353 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HATLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WILCOX AND CRISP COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE WENONA...ARABI...HATLEY...EAST CRISP...
SEVILLE...PITTS AND TREMONT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8380 3203 8369 3202 8349 3184 8358
      3184 8360 3181 8361 3180 8362 3180 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 206DEG 6KT 3189 8366