Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS. APPEARS COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER ERN AL AND
WRN GA LOWER THAN MODEL FCSTS. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS. MLCAPE
PRETTY STOUT WITH VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20-30KTS. APPARENTLY FORCING AND LOCALIZED LIFT IS LACKING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT. MODELS A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROGRESSION OF THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ATL METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TAPERED OFF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER...1 INCH HAIL OR HIGHER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GEORGIA.

FOR THE TEMPERATURES..HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...AND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...THIS COULD IMPACT MORNING LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING BY FRIDAY.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS GA. LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES OF POPS MON THROUGH DAY
7. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY ND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD TSRA DROPPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TEMPO TSRA BUT BASED ON TRENDS...MAY HAVE TO PULL THIS
OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD END OR BE EAST OF FCST
POINTS BY 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AFTER 07Z AND NW AFTER
SUNRISE. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG UNLESS PRECIP BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE BACKED OFF ON FOG FOR MOST SITES. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO 25KTS THURS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VERTICAL MIXING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA THIS EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON RADIATIONAL FOG THURS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  59  79 /  60  20   5   0
ATLANTA         66  83  59  76 /  70  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  54  71 /  70  20  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    64  83  57  76 /  70  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        68  89  63  82 /  70  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     64  82  57  75 /  70  10   5   0
MACON           66  89  60  83 /  60  20   5   0
ROME            64  84  57  77 /  50  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  58  77 /  70  10   5   0
VIDALIA         68  89  65  88 /  40  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-232300-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
648 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1 INCH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIMITED WIND SHEAR TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY BUT STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AGAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
922 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ059>061-072-073-230145-
922 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL...40 MPH
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN PUTNAM...JONES...BALDWIN...HANCOCK
AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BLOUNTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS
PUTNAM...JONES...BALDWIN...HANCOCK AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 945
PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
PIEDMONT...BRADLEY...WAYSIDE...ROUND
OAK...HILLSBORO...ADGATEVILLE...BLOUNTSVILLE...STANFORDVILLE...BROWNS
 CROSSING...RESSEAUS CROSSROADS...WILLARD...ETHRIDGE...FLAT
ROCK...ALLENWOOD AND MERIWETHER.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 8326 3308 8315 3300 8368 3325 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 248DEG 22KT 3313 8352

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
932 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ071-072-082-230200-
932 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MONROE...JONES AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 927 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LIZELLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE ARE LIKELY AS THIS
STORM MOVES ACROSS MONROE...JONES AND BIBB COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE LAKE
TOBESOFKEE...SKIPPERTON...LIZELLA...WESLEYAN...PAYNE
CITY...MACON...ARKWRIGHT AND CROSS KEYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8385 3281 8387 3299 8376 3289 8352
      3271 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 228DEG 13KT 3280 8374

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
939 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ081-082-094-230200-
939 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN PEACH...BIBB AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 936 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FRIENDSHIP...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS PEACH...
BIBB AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE FRIENDSHIP...SANDY POINT AND JACK BROWN
ESTATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3280 8387 3272 8374 3265 8375 3260 8391
      3276 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 249DEG 16KT 3270 8386

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