Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS. APPEARS COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER ERN AL AND
WRN GA LOWER THAN MODEL FCSTS. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS. MLCAPE
PRETTY STOUT WITH VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20-30KTS. APPARENTLY FORCING AND LOCALIZED LIFT IS LACKING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT. MODELS A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROGRESSION OF THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ATL METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TAPERED OFF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER...1 INCH HAIL OR HIGHER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GEORGIA.

FOR THE TEMPERATURES..HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...AND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...THIS COULD IMPACT MORNING LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING BY FRIDAY.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS GA. LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES OF POPS MON THROUGH DAY
7. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY ND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD TSRA DROPPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TEMPO TSRA BUT BASED ON TRENDS...MAY HAVE TO PULL THIS
OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD END OR BE EAST OF FCST
POINTS BY 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AFTER 07Z AND NW AFTER
SUNRISE. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG UNLESS PRECIP BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE BACKED OFF ON FOG FOR MOST SITES. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO 25KTS THURS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VERTICAL MIXING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA THIS EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON RADIATIONAL FOG THURS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  59  79 /  60  20   5   0
ATLANTA         66  83  59  76 /  70  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  54  71 /  70  20  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    64  83  57  76 /  70  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        68  89  63  82 /  70  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     64  82  57  75 /  70  10   5   0
MACON           66  89  60  83 /  60  20   5   0
ROME            64  84  57  77 /  50  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  58  77 /  70  10   5   0
VIDALIA         68  89  65  88 /  40  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-232300-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
648 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1 INCH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIMITED WIND SHEAR TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY BUT STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AGAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
607 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ059-060-222245-
607 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN PUTNAM AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HILLSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS PUTNAM AND
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM INCLUDE HILLSBORO...PIEDMONT...STANFORDVILLE...RESSEAUS
CROSSROADS...WARFIELD...CENTRAL GEORGIA EXPERIMENT STATION...
WILLARD...EATONTON AND SHADY DALE.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8358 3329 8324 3320 8341 3317 8360
      3315 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 226DEG 14KT 3317 8360

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
624 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ082-083-222315-
624 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TWIGGS AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 622 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HUBER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TWIGGS AND
BIBB COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM INCLUDE HUBER...FITZPATRICK...DRY BRANCH...FRANKLINTON AND
MYRICKS MILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 8365 3286 8348 3289 8343 3289 8342
      3278 8337 3266 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 213DEG 13KT 3276 8355

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ036>039-049>051-062-230045-
753 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILKES...WARREN...TALIAFERRO...OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...MORGAN...
CLARKE AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 749 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HARD LABOR CREEK STATE PARK TO
CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WILKES...
WARREN...TALIAFERRO...OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...MORGAN...CLARKE AND
GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE BARNETT...CAREY...GRESHAMVILLE...GREENSBORO...
FARMINGTON...BISHOP...WATKINSVILLE...SWORDS...HARD LABOR CREEK STATE
PARK...BOSTWICK...BUCKHEAD...ROBINSON...CRAWFORDVILLE...PENFIELD AND
STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF GEORGIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8337 3389 8296 3371 8274 3370 8260
      3368 8254 3348 8284 3355 8308 3355 8322
      3348 8351 3354 8364 3370 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 249DEG 17KT 3368 8352 3377 8330
          3359 8312 3358 8298 3353 8284

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
827 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ027-038-039-230115-
827 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILKES...OGLETHORPE AND MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 824 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF SMITHONIA TO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONS CROSSROADS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WILKES...
OGLETHORPE AND MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SMITHONIA...SANDY CROSS...COMER...
WATSON MILL BRIDGE STATE PARK...PAOLI...JACKSONS CROSSROADS...POINT
PETER...VESTA...CARLTON...MALLORYSVILLE AND NORMAN.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 8281 3380 8288 3388 8296 3394 8326
      3418 8310 3415 8305 3410 8303 3401 8293
      3402 8291 3399 8286 3400 8283 3398 8279
      3399 8268 3397 8264 3394 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 220DEG 17KT 3392 8318 3379 8306
          3374 8294

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ080-081-230130-
901 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TAYLOR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 856 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER POTTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AND HAIL OF PENNY TO DIME SIZE ARE LIKELY AS
THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TAYLOR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
POTTERVILLE...BUTLER...REYNOLDS AND FICKLING MILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3257 8428 3272 8411 3258 8393 3253 8404
      3253 8405 3252 8406 3251 8411 3247 8415
      3245 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 227DEG 11KT 3255 8414