River Flood Warning 2, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
250 AM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME FROM OUR SOUTH PINCHED OFF ALOFT...BUT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
TODAY...THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN MONDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS POISED TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EACH DAY WILL SEE A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE DOWN IN THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT WHERE THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO HOLD MOISTURE
AS THOSE WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE PW'S ON EPZ'S SOUNDING CAME IN BELOW 1 INCH LAST
NIGHT. THIS WAS BORN OUT BY A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN AREAL SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
REMAINS MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME STORM FORMATION.
TONIGHT THE FOCUS IS OVER THE GILA REGION OF SW NM WITH

ANY ISSUES TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WILL LIKELY FOCUS OVER THE N
AND NW PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD DYNAMICS TO THE
EQUATION. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE GILA EASTWARD TO THE
SACS. TO THE SOUTH...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
WEAK INHIBITION TO INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

TUESDAY...AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE MODELS SHOW A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO OUR NORTH WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. TO OUR SOUTH A COUPLE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...
ONE TO OUR SW AND ONE TO OUR SE...ATTEMPT TO BRIDGE EAST TO WEST
AS A RIDGE. HOWEVER MODELS KEEP A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE FEATURE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS ACTS AS A CHANNEL TO ALLOW SOME MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. AIDING THIS WILL BE A PAIR
OF TROPICAL STORM SYSTEMS...MANUAL AND INGRID...ADDING DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE FETCH TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN KEEPS ENOUGH
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA TO MAKE DAILY ISOLD/SCT POPS NECESSARY FOR
ALL ZONES. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVITY EAST ZONES
TUESDAY AS A SURGE ARRIVE UP THE TX/MEX RIO GRANDE.

FOR THURSDAY ONWARD...THE GFS KEEP THE MOISTURE MORE ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA AND FURTHER WEST WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE
WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH DRY OUT THE W AND NW ZONES AND LIMITS
THE MOISTURE TO OUR E AND S ZONES. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TO
DECIDE HOW TO ALLOCATE POPS ACROSS THE ZONES FOR THE LATER THREE
DAYS OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

IN SUMMARY...THROUGH THE WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
AND JUST BELOW OR AT SEASONAL NORMALS. SKIES WILL VARY GREATLY
WITH PLENTY OF SUN...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS TOO. EXPECT GENERALLY
ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS AND PERIODS OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/12Z-16/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND IN THE GILA REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. THIS AFTN/EVE EXPECT P6SM FEW-SCT120 SCT-BKN200 WITH
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR VCNTY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOODING SURGES OVER THE GILA REGION ALONG DRAINAGES OFF OF BURN
SCARS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT AND LOG JAMS
HOLDING WATER BACK AND THEN BREAKING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
GILA REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER JUST WEST OF BAJA ARE SLOWLY MERGING
TO CREATE AN ELONGATED EAST- WEST RIDGE ACROSS AND JUST SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. THIS WILL PINCH OFF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
LED TO THE HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
30 TO 40 PCT RANGE OVER DESERT LOWLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 60 PCT RANGE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW (2) HAINES
INDICES AND FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  69  87  69  85 /  10  10  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           87  63  87  63  85 /  10  10  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              85  64  85  64  83 /  10  20  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              88  66  88  66  86 /  10  20  20  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              65  48  64  49  62 /  30  20  30  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   85  62  85  62  83 /  20  20  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             77  61  78  62  76 /  20  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  85  63  85  63  83 /  10  20  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               86  64  86  64  84 /  10  20  10  10  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  69  87  69  85 /  10  10  20  10  20
DELL CITY               87  63  87  63  85 /  10  10  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  67  90  67  88 /  10  10  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              83  64  84  65  82 /  10  20  20  20  20
FABENS                  87  69  87  69  85 /  10  10  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            86  66  86  66  84 /  10  20  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  65  85  65  83 /  10  10  20  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  85  63  83 /  10  20  10  10  20
HATCH                   82  63  82  63  80 /  10  20  10  10  10
COLUMBUS                85  66  85  66  83 /  10  20  10  10  10
OROGRANDE               87  67  87  67  85 /  10  20  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 73  53  71  54  69 /  30  20  30  20  30
MESCALERO               76  53  75  54  73 /  30  20  30  20  30
TIMBERON                75  51  74  52  72 /  20  20  30  20  30
WINSTON                 74  54  76  54  74 /  30  20  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               81  60  82  61  80 /  20  20  10  10  20
SPACEPORT               84  62  84  62  82 /  10  20  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            78  57  79  59  77 /  20  20  20  20  20
HURLEY                  79  60  80  61  78 /  20  20  10  20  20
CLIFF                   82  56  82  56  80 /  20  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              82  53  83  54  81 /  20  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 80  61  81  62  79 /  20  20  10  20  20
ANIMAS                  86  64  86  64  84 /  10  20  10  10  10
HACHITA                 84  62  84  62  82 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  60  84  60  82 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              82  60  83  61  81 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14-BIRD