Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
342 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN TEXAS WITH RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BROKEN UP
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP TOWARDS THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAINS TO
AREAS FROM EL PASO EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL WE FINALLY GOT A BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER TO ALLOW AREAS TO
RECOVER FROM THE LAST FOUR DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN. DESPITE BREAK IN
WEATHER...WE STILL HAVE AN INCIDENT ON THE GILA RIVER WITH A LOG JAM
BREAK AND BRIEF RAPID RISE IN WATER LEVELS AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM
EXCESS WATER SHOULD BE BETWEEN GILA HOT SPRINGS AND GILA. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH GILA GAGE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO SEE IF IT REGISTERS A
SPIKE FROM THIS WATER. BACK TO THE WEATHER...UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WITH RIDGING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO HAS BROKEN THE STRONG
SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE IS ALSO PUSHING EXISTING MOISTURE TO THE EAST. OF COURSE NEAR
THE SURFACE NO SUCH SCOURING EXISTS SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
DIFFERENCE NOW BEING THAT PW'S WILL AROUND 1.0 INCH INSTEAD OF 1.5
INCHES. DON'T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM REMAINS
OF T.S. INGRID. MODELS CONTINUE SOME INCONSISTENCY (AS EXPECTED) ON
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST TO BRING THIS MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS EASTERN HALF OF CWA FOR
BOTH DAYS. COULD BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER IN THIS AREA...BUT SO FAR
MODELS KEEP IT AT A GLANCING BLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERLY FLOW (AUTUMN?) HAS
ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PUSH TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP
MID/HIGH LAYERS DRY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OROGRAPHIC...TO FORM EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/00Z-16/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND IN THE GILA REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. FOR EARLY TONIGHT EXPECT P6SM FEW-SCT120 SCT-BKN200 WITH
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR VCNTY THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL HAVE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE GILA REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
DUE TO WET GROUND FROM THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER JUST WEST
OF BAJA ARE SLOWLY MERGING TO CREATE AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST RIDGE
ACROSS AND JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL PINCH OFF THE PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT LED TO THE HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
IN THE 30 TO 40 PCT RANGE OVER DESERT LOWLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 60 PCT RANGE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW (2) HAINES INDICES
AND FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  87  69  87  69 /  20  10  10  20  10
SIERRA BLANCA           62  87  63  87  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
LAS CRUCES              63  85  64  85  64 /  20  10  20  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              65  88  66  88  66 /  20  10  20  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              47  65  48  64  49 /  30  30  20  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  85  62  85  62 /  30  20  20  10  10
SILVER CITY             59  77  61  78  62 /  30  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  62  85  63  85  63 /  20  10  20  10  10
LORDSBURG               63  86  64  86  64 /  30  10  20  10  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  87  69  87  69 /  20  10  10  20  10
DELL CITY               62  87  63  87  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            66  90  67  90  67 /  20  10  10  20  20
LOMA LINDA              62  83  64  84  65 /  20  10  20  20  20
FABENS                  68  87  69  87  69 /  20  10  10  20  10
SANTA TERESA            65  86  66  86  66 /  20  10  20  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  85  65  85  65 /  20  10  10  20  10
JORNADA RANGE           62  85  63  85  63 /  20  10  20  10  10
HATCH                   62  82  63  82  63 /  20  10  20  10  10
COLUMBUS                65  85  66  85  66 /  20  10  20  10  10
OROGRANDE               66  87  67  87  67 /  20  10  20  20  10
MAYHILL                 52  73  53  71  54 /  30  30  20  30  20
MESCALERO               52  76  53  75  54 /  30  30  20  30  20
TIMBERON                50  75  51  74  52 /  30  20  20  30  20
WINSTON                 51  75  54  76  54 /  40  30  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               58  81  60  82  61 /  30  20  20  10  20
SPACEPORT               61  84  62  84  62 /  20  10  20  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            55  78  57  79  59 /  40  20  20  20  20
HURLEY                  58  79  60  80  61 /  30  20  20  10  20
CLIFF                   54  82  56  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              51  82  53  83  54 /  40  20  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 59  80  61  81  62 /  30  20  20  10  20
ANIMAS                  63  86  64  86  64 /  30  10  20  10  10
HACHITA                 61  84  62  84  62 /  30  10  20  10  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          59  84  60  84  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              58  82  60  83  61 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HEFNER/PARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
529 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHLORIDE                33.34N 107.68W
09/14/2013  M1.07 INCH       SIERRA             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING OCCURRING. 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN
            20 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1300625

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
813 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GILA HOT SPRINGS        33.20N 108.21W
09/14/2013                   GRANT              NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DEBRIS-FILLED FLOOD WAVE FROM LOG JAM BREAK ON WEST
            FORK OF GILA RIVER IN CATRON COUNTY CAUSED FLASH
            FLOODING IN GILA HOT SPRINGS. RESCUES WERE NECESSARY.
            SEVERAL IN KAYAKS WERE REPORTED MISSING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1300626

FAUSETT