Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 411 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

This Evening and Tonight:

Modest moisture advection continues to raise dewpoints into the
lower to mid 50s across our southwestern zones, generally along and
south of Highway 50. Cloud cover has inhibited warmer temperatures
but we are still seeing afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
70s. A nebulous/weakly defined warm front, evident by a slight wind
shift and greater dewpoints over southeastern KS and west central
MO.

Convection has initiated in south central KS and the anticipation is
that this area of storms will propagate eastward and impact mainly
portions of southeast KS and southwest MO. There is a tight gradient
of instability along and south of the forecast area and given the
supercellular structure of the initial convection and it's eastward
movement there is enough uncertainty to keep a watch south of the
area for now. If instability can build more northward into the
forecast area, there is ample deep layer shear to support organized
convection, likely in the form of supercells initially, with a
threat for large hail and strong winds.

Additional convection may develop later this evening over central to
eastern KS and move eastward into extreme eastern KS and MO during
the overnight hours. The severe threat looks more marginal with those
storms, should they develop, but they could still produce marginally
severe hail and strong winds. These storms would likely track
eastward along the instability gradient/warm front, which would
likely generally run from east to west along the I-70 corridor. So
strong to possibly severe storms may affect the region during the
overnight hours with the most likely timing being around midnight,
give or take a few hours either way.

Monday:

With the area likely to be in the wake of overnight convection, low
clouds possibly lingering into the late morning and afternoon hours,
have trimmed precipitation chances considerably and confined them to
our eastern zones. Cloud cover will likely keep temperatures from
getting as warm as the previous two days, but we will still see
highs in the lower 70s. The exception may be in our northwest were
cloud cover may diminish earlier leading to longer sun.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

Monday Evening into Tuesday...

With a front in the vicinity of our Iowa border, expectations are
that the nocturnal low level jet will kick off overnight convection.
Models are not shy about advertising several hundred J/KG of MUCAPE
advecting over the front as the jet kicks in, but soundings point at
thunderstorms being elevated in nature, so the severe threat is
looking only marginal. However, with precipitable water values of 1
inch plus, heavy rain could be an issue with any storms that
develop.

As the day arrives Tuesday, convection will likely be shifting out
of our region from the overnight hours, though some lingering
activity might stick around through mid-morning. Much of the day
should be rather nice, with warm southerly winds prevailing helping
support highs in the upper 60s and 70s. However, soundings still show
the region remaining rather capped through the day, so currently not
expecting any additional daylight thunderstorm activity in our
forecast area. However, with a cold front moving in our direction
through Kansas, thoughts are that central and north central Kansas
could have a lot of afternoon activity, which would congeal and shift
east into us Tuesday night.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday...

Expecting the main thrust of the strong to severe storms to arrive
in the evening to overnight hours of Tuesday night. Convection from
the daylight hours of Tuesday will likely be closing in on, or have
reached, our forecast area by the evening hours. Support from the
upper level dynamics and surface front will provide us with plenty
of opportunity to keep convection going into and through the
overnight hours. The nocturnal jet ahead of the advancing front will
have its opportunity to enhance the convective potential late
Tuesday night as the front moves through bringing the threat of
severe thunderstorms to the entire region.

The slow frontal progress could keep rain going into and through the
day Wednesday, with post frontal showers across the far northern and
western reaches of the forecast area. There could be a small window
of opportunity for more thunderstorms in the warm sector ahead of the
front, east of a west central to northeast Missouri line during the
morning and afternoon hours.

Thursday through Sunday...

Cooler weather will great this period thanks to the cold front that
moved though the region Tuesday night/Wednesday. The axis of the
west CONUS trough will shift east through Missouri Thursday night,
likely providing us with some of the coolest temperatures of the
work week as the center of the cool Canadian high slides across.
This will likely make Thursday night lows possibly below
freezing over a large portion of northern Missouri and eastern
Kansas Thursday night, with more limited freezing conditions again
Friday night. However, the cool surface high that will be dominating
the Plains will quickly shift east, allowing a warming return flow to
reestablish itself by Saturday. This return flow will allow near
normal temperatures to prevail again for next weekend.

As for precipitation, not a lot is expected in these outer periods.
Flow across our section of the Plains States continues to look
rather flat and zonal at the tail end of the work week and through
the weekend, with only a hint of a shortwave moving across the
Plains next weekend. This should keep us dry through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT MON APR 8 2013

A narrow line of thunderstorms has just moved through MCI at TAF issuance
and will affect MKC through 630Z however beyond that conditions will
remain dry at the terminals through the overnight. MVFR cigs will
continue at MKC and MCI through the overnight and into tomorrow
morning. STJ is currently VFR however MVFR cigs will also move into
that terminal by 07Z. Model sounding hint at the potential for cigs
to further sink into high IFR by early morning however surface obs do
not support this at this time. Model soundings also hint at light fog
at the terminals and have included tempo groups for vsbys reduced to
4-5SM between 09Z-13Z. MVFR cigs will lift at STJ by 16Z and at MKC
and MCI by 18Z. There is the potential for showers in the VC of MKC
and MCI tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
648 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD PUSHING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...REACHING MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALL CONCERNED PARTIES ARE URGED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER... SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

BAILEY

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