Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2013

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

April 7, 2013Atchison County, Kansas

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at Apr 7, 2013, 10:48 PM CDT for Atchison County, Kansas. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 7, 2013, 10:48 PM CDT (03:48 UTC)
Expired: Apr 7, 2013, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO

County Atchison County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 54 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -143 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1535 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 172 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 7, 6:55 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 7, 6:55 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
655 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

Convection is starting to expand across cntrl/ern KS in response to a
strengthening low-level jet. This jet will continue to intensify and
nose into ern KS/wrn MO through the late evening, and into northern
MO overnight. Convergence ahead of the jet will be adequate for
continued upscale growth of this convection into the KC metro through
10 PM and into northern/eastern parts of the forecast area after
midnight. Instability through this time will be decreasing so severe
threat should be somewhat marginal. In fact, latest RAP soundings
indicate surface dewpoints around 60F needed for any surface-based
instability at all, and this may be hard to achieve given upstream
dewpoints only in the mid/upper 50s. Still, good theta-e advection in
the LLJ combined with increasing low-level helicity and adequate
deep-layer shear could lead to a threat for large hail in elevated
storms through the late evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 411 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

This Evening and Tonight:

Modest moisture advection continues to raise dewpoints into the
lower to mid 50s across our southwestern zones, generally along and
south of Highway 50. Cloud cover has inhibited warmer temperatures
but we are still seeing afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
70s. A nebulous/weakly defined warm front, evident by a slight wind
shift and greater dewpoints over southeastern KS and west central
MO.

Convection has initiated in south central KS and the anticipation is
that this area of storms will propagate eastward and impact mainly
portions of southeast KS and southwest MO. There is a tight gradient
of instability along and south of the forecast area and given the
supercellular structure of the initial convection and it's eastward
movement there is enough uncertainty to keep a watch south of the
area for now. If instability can build more northward into the
forecast area, there is ample deep layer shear to support organized
convection, likely in the form of supercells initially, with a
threat for large hail and strong winds.

Additional convection may develop later this evening over central to
eastern KS and move eastward into extreme eastern KS and MO during
the overnight hours. The severe threat looks more marginal with those
storms, should they develop, but they could still produce marginally
severe hail and strong winds. These storms would likely track
eastward along the instability gradient/warm front, which would
likely generally run from east to west along the I-70 corridor. So
strong to possibly severe storms may affect the region during the
overnight hours with the most likely timing being around midnight,
give or take a few hours either way.

Monday:

With the area likely to be in the wake of overnight convection, low
clouds possibly lingering into the late morning and afternoon hours,
have trimmed precipitation chances considerably and confined them to
our eastern zones. Cloud cover will likely keep temperatures from
getting as warm as the previous two days, but we will still see
highs in the lower 70s. The exception may be in our northwest were
cloud cover may diminish earlier leading to longer sun.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

Monday Evening into Tuesday...

With a front in the vicinity of our Iowa border, expectations are
that the nocturnal low level jet will kick off overnight convection.
Models are not shy about advertising several hundred J/KG of MUCAPE
advecting over the front as the jet kicks in, but soundings point at
thunderstorms being elevated in nature, so the severe threat is
looking only marginal. However, with precipitable water values of 1
inch plus, heavy rain could be an issue with any storms that
develop.

As the day arrives Tuesday, convection will likely be shifting out
of our region from the overnight hours, though some lingering
activity might stick around through mid-morning. Much of the day
should be rather nice, with warm southerly winds prevailing helping
support highs in the upper 60s and 70s. However, soundings still show
the region remaining rather capped through the day, so currently not
expecting any additional daylight thunderstorm activity in our
forecast area. However, with a cold front moving in our direction
through Kansas, thoughts are that central and north central Kansas
could have a lot of afternoon activity, which would congeal and shift
east into us Tuesday night.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday...

Expecting the main thrust of the strong to severe storms to arrive
in the evening to overnight hours of Tuesday night. Convection from
the daylight hours of Tuesday will likely be closing in on, or have
reached, our forecast area by the evening hours. Support from the
upper level dynamics and surface front will provide us with plenty
of opportunity to keep convection going into and through the
overnight hours. The nocturnal jet ahead of the advancing front will
have its opportunity to enhance the convective potential late
Tuesday night as the front moves through bringing the threat of
severe thunderstorms to the entire region.

The slow frontal progress could keep rain going into and through the
day Wednesday, with post frontal showers across the far northern and
western reaches of the forecast area. There could be a small window
of opportunity for more thunderstorms in the warm sector ahead of the
front, east of a west central to northeast Missouri line during the
morning and afternoon hours.

Thursday through Sunday...

Cooler weather will great this period thanks to the cold front that
moved though the region Tuesday night/Wednesday. The axis of the
west CONUS trough will shift east through Missouri Thursday night,
likely providing us with some of the coolest temperatures of the
work week as the center of the cool Canadian high slides across.
This will likely make Thursday night lows possibly below
freezing over a large portion of northern Missouri and eastern
Kansas Thursday night, with more limited freezing conditions again
Friday night. However, the cool surface high that will be dominating
the Plains will quickly shift east, allowing a warming return flow to
reestablish itself by Saturday. This return flow will allow near
normal temperatures to prevail again for next weekend.

As for precipitation, not a lot is expected in these outer periods.
Flow across our section of the Plains States continues to look
rather flat and zonal at the tail end of the work week and through
the weekend, with only a hint of a shortwave moving across the
Plains next weekend. This should keep us dry through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

Convection is growing in coverage and intensity over central/eastern
KS at this time, and this trend should continue through the evening.
Storms could become fairly widespread across ern KS/wrn MO over the
next few hours with the peak occurring near KC around 02Z to 04Z.
Some of the stronger storms could produce hail. Cig forecast after
this time becomes tricky, but chances for prolonged MVFR cigs appear
high enough to maintain a prevailing group through at least sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 7, 6:48 PM CDT, 4 hours before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
648 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD PUSHING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...REACHING MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALL CONCERNED PARTIES ARE URGED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER... SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

BAILEY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 7, 8:05 PM CDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
805 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             3 SW RAYTOWN            38.98N 94.50W
04/07/2013  M0.75 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Apr 7, 8:10 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
810 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            39.09N 94.42W
04/07/2013  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Apr 7, 8:34 PM CDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
834 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
04/07/2013  M0.88 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAMIS

Special weather statement, Apr 7, 8:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
850 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

KSZ104-105-MOZ029-037-080215-
CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON KS-WYANDOTTE KS-
850 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST
KANSAS...AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 848 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OVERLAND PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MISSION...FAIRWAY...MISSION HILLS...WESTWOOD...KANSAS CITY...NORTH
  KANSAS CITY...SUGAR CREEK...INDEPENDENCE...COURTNEY...LIBERTY...
  MISSION WOODS...WESTWOOD HILLS...AVONDALE...GLENAIRE...ROELAND
  PARK...MAYWOOD...RANDOLPH AND BIRMINGHAM.

LAT...LON 3927 9441 3913 9426 3892 9467 3900 9474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 230DEG 39KT 3899 9463

HAWBLITZEL

Local storm report, Apr 7, 8:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
858 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HAIL             KANSAS CITY             39.10N 94.58W
04/07/2013  M0.75 INCH       JACKSON            MO   PUBLIC

&&

GAMIS

Special weather statement, Apr 7, 10:48 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

KSZ025-MOZ020-028-080415-
ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-PLATTE MO-
1048 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN AND ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1046 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MUSCOTAH...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NORTONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ATCHISON...EFFINGHAM...LANCASTER...RUSHVILLE...HURON...
  FARMINGTON...CUMMINGS...LEWIS AND CLARK VI...BEAN LAKE AND IATAN.

LAT...LON 3958 9557 3962 9557 3965 9516 3965 9512
      3962 9510 3962 9506 3966 9503 3967 9498
      3942 9496 3944 9557 3956 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 265DEG 48KT 3954 9544

HAWBLITZEL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 7, 7:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Jackson	34 min
Apr 7, 7:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	16 min
Apr 7, 8:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Jackson	25 min
Apr 7, 10:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan	52 min
Apr 8, 12:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Clay, Ray	45 min
Apr 8, 12:47 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	28 min
Apr 8, 1:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	35 min
Apr 8, 1:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Lafayette	31 min
Apr 8, 2:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Saline	43 min
Apr 8, 2:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Howard, Randolph	12 min
Apr 8, 2:52 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Cooper, Pettis	38 min
Apr 7, 7:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Wyandotte	34 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2013 Every special weather statement in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.