Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Kansas City, MO

249 
WWUS53 KEAX 192357
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MOC013-037-083-095-101-200015-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130520T0015Z/
BATES MO-CASS MO-HENRY MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSON...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...WESTERN HENRY...EASTERN CASS AND BATES
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

RECENT LOCAL STORM REPORTS: AT 645 PM...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN RICH HILL.

AT 652 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF
ADRIAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARDEN CITY...HOLDEN...WARRENSBURG...CREIGHTON...URICH...EAST
LYNNE...CHILHOWEE...LEETON...KINGSVILLE...LONE JACK...HARTWELL...
QUICK CITY...GUNN CITY...LA TOUR...BLAIRSTOWN...POST OAK...
CENTERVIEW...STRASBURG AND PITTSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 9454 3823 9452 3893 9414 3875 9356
      3821 9395 3821 9405 3806 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 219DEG 45KT 3841 9412

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
516 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 514 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is quickly growing upscale over central and eastern
Kansas with overall mode taking a quick transition to quasi-linear.
Still may see a few supercells ahead of this developing line capable
of producing very large hail, particularly across far northwest MO
and northeast KS. Overall tornado threat across that area is
relatively low at this time.

Large bowing structure developing near Emporia is taking a track
toward Kansas City, timed to arrive into the KC metro around 7 or 8
pm. As mentioned in an earlier discussion, low-level winds will
become increasingly favorable for bow echoes and embedded
mesovortices capable of producing very strong winds and tornadoes as
the line reaches the MO/KS border. Thus, there is increasing concern
for a potential widespread damaging wind event with a few embedded
tornadoes across east central Kansas and west central Missouri,
including all of the Kansas City metro. The potential also exists for
some significant wind gusts greater than 70 mph when the line
arrives. This wind and isolated tornado threat will continue eastward
later this evening toward central MO, but overall trends may be to
slowly weaken after the storms get east of KC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.

Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.

Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.

Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control.  Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains.  Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Line of storms is expected to rapidly develop later this afternoon
across eastern Kansas, ahead of a weak wave that is currently visible
as a band of altocumulus from GRI to SLN and west of ICT. While
timing is still somewhat uncertain, best guess at this time is that
this line of storms will approach the KS/MO state line around 00Z,
progressing toward IRK and COU toward 04Z, give or take a couple of
hours. These storms may be strong with large hail and severe wind
gusts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT AND IMPACT WILL EXIST
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE GREATER
KANSAS CITY AND ST JOSEPH AREAS. STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL ONCE GAIN BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS BY MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY EAST OF A
CHILLICOTHE TO CLINTON LINE.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
MONDAY.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
415 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             ROCKPORT                40.42N 95.52W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             ROCKPORT                40.42N 95.52W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   PUBLIC

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             2 W WESTBORO            40.53N 95.36W
05/19/2013  M1.75 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             6 N ROCKPORT            40.50N 95.52W
05/19/2013  M1.75 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS

&&

DUX