Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Kansas City, MO

974 
WWUS53 KEAX 192148
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MOC005-192215-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130519T2215Z/
ATCHISON MO-
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

 AT 426 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL 2 
MILES WEST OF WESTBORO.

AT 446 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
ROCKPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TARKIO...ROCKPORT...WATSON AND WESTBORO.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 106 AND 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 9577 4059 9576 4058 9520 4056 9520
      4030 9558 4031 9566 4034 9563 4041 9566
      4045 9565 4046 9568 4048 9570 4049 9569
      4051 9570 4052 9566 4054 9566 4056 9568
      4052 9570 4052 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 225DEG 35KT 4043 9560

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.

Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.

Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.

Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control.  Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains.  Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Line of storms is expected to rapidly develop later this afternoon
across eastern Kansas, ahead of a weak wave that is currently visible
as a band of altocumulus from GRI to SLN and west of ICT. While
timing is still somewhat uncertain, best guess at this time is that
this line of storms will approach the KS/MO state line around 00Z,
progressing toward IRK and COU toward 04Z, give or take a couple of
hours. These storms may be strong with large hail and severe wind
gusts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WITH THE HAZARDS TRANSITIONING TO
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL ONCE GAIN BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS BY MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY EAST OF A
CHILLICOTHE TO CLINTON LINE.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
415 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             ROCKPORT                40.42N 95.52W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             ROCKPORT                40.42N 95.52W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   PUBLIC

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             2 W WESTBORO            40.53N 95.36W
05/19/2013  M1.75 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DUX