Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AND TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL INCREASE DEEP SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AN AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS ALSO
SIGNAL IMPENDING DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A SOMEWHAT SHORTENED DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DEVELOPING
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. FOCUS FOR BOTH SHORT TERM INTO THE EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY BISECTING IA JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM NE MO...ADJACENT W
CENTRAL IL NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IA SIGNALS AN AREA OF
DESTABILIZATION IN THE CLEARING AND WAKE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SW
WI. SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGER MCS...EXITING TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST...FOLLOWING SYNOPTIC FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE FOCUS AND
TRIGGER FOR STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CENTERED ON A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT
RISK IN PLACE FOR DAY 2.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ALTHOUGH NOT AS IDEAL AS TODAY OR MONDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE AREA FOR DAY
3. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL TREND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOWARD
MORE STABLE...NOT AS WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER LATE WEEK AS THE
PLAINS LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE MOVES OUT BY
NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TIMING OF A WARM FRONT THAT MAY BRING RAIN
CHANCES BY LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A WARM...HUMID UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE A
CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH MLI AND POSSIBLE DBQ EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...HAZE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
MVFR VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
TOO LOW TO PINPOINT IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
355 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE MOST LIKELY FRAME FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE FROM 3 TO 10 PM
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES.

LATE TONIGHT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD AGAIN BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL
OVER 1 INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.  AT THIS
TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ENOUGH FORCING THAT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY LATE
MONDAY PM AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE PRIMARY RISKS APPEARS TO
BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A
SECONDARY CONCERN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH MARGINAL...LOW END SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

08/NICHOLS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             2 WSW BETTENDORF        41.56N 90.51W
05/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TGP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             1 W BETTENDORF          41.56N 90.49W
05/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN ALSO.

&&

TGP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL AIR 41.62N 90.58W
05/19/2013  M0.25 INCH       SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

0646 PM     HAIL             5 SSW BETTENDORF        41.50N 90.51W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       ROCK ISLAND        IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

GROSS