Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Des Moines, IA

390 
WWUS53 KDMX 200217
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
917 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

IAC013-171-200227-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-130520T0215Z/
TAMA IA-BLACK HAWK IA-
917 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BLACK HAWK AND
NORTHERN TAMA COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4229 9229 4209 9230 4200 9277 4221 9277
      4236 9227 4229 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 236DEG 30KT 4215 9262

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
712 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. CURRENT WATCHES
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES THIS EVENING.
THOUGH INSTABILITY HAS WANED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF IOWA WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH INSTABILITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WITH APPROACHING WAVE WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 60S WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SW AS
DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AFT 06Z. EXPECTING MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO REACH WEST CENTRAL IOWA BY 22Z AND NEARING CENTRAL
SECTIONS BY 00-01Z WITH EASTERN COUNTIES SEEING STORMS THROUGH
03Z.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH CUTOFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MID WEEK AND LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW STALLS OR SLIGHTLY
RETROGRADES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOMORROW AND LOOKS TO PLACE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE DRY SLOT. CUT BACK ON POPS DURING
THE DAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE BEST FORCING PUSHES INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO MINNESOTA.
LATEST 4.0KM WRF PUSHES CONVECTION INTO FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND
INTO MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY AND KEEPS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXIST
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE PEAK HEATING AIDS IN DESTABILIZATION. MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND WINDS WITH THE DECENT CAPE PRESENT AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND LIKELY WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. DRY SLOT MOVES BACK INTO IOWA
PAST 12Z TUESDAY AND HAD TO CUT BACK ON POPS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PUSHES
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRINGS SOME
LIGHT STRATI-FORM RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES FILTER INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL SOME WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM MCW TO KAMW TO N OF NWS OFFICE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 10 PM.  WND G55KTS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL.  ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER NEB WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
IOWA OVERNIGHT BUT AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
STORMS.  SHOULD BE A BREAK AFT 12Z THROUGH 21Z BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KMCW TO KDSM LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
421 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>046-057-058-070-071-202130-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-
421 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ON MONDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL AS AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK.

IAZ047>050-059>062-072>075-081>086-092>097-202130-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-
RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
421 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS LATER INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. GOLF BALL HAIL...DAMAGING SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME OF THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER...MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ON MONDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL AS AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
746 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E ALLEMAN             41.82N 93.59W
05/19/2013                   POLK               IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWERLINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 69 EAST OF ALLEMAN.

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
755 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 N STATE CENTER        42.09N 93.17W
05/19/2013                   MARSHALL           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FBOKSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
808 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WSW EARLHAM             41.49N 94.12W
05/19/2013                   MADISON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TRAILER PARK WEST TO SOUTHWEST PART OF EARLHAM WITH 6 TO
            8 UNITS DAMAGED AND ONE UNIT ROOF MISSING. MULTIPLE TREES
            DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0630 PM     TORNADO          2 W EARLHAM             41.49N 94.17W
05/19/2013                   MADISON            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CONFIRMED TORNADO ON GROUND WEST OF EARLHAM

0641 PM     TORNADO          2 S ADEL                41.58N 94.03W
05/19/2013                   DALLAS             IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOOKING NORTHWEST OFF OF R22

0657 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANGER                 41.76N 93.82W
05/19/2013                   DALLAS             IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES AND 18 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN

0707 PM     TSTM WND GST     ANKENY                  41.72N 93.61W
05/19/2013  M75.00 MPH       POLK               IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
816 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     TORNADO          SLATER                  41.88N 93.68W
05/19/2013                   STORY              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED BETWEEN SLATER AND HUXLEY NEAR 538TH.
            STREET.

&&

DEROY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
821 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W EARLHAM             41.49N 94.14W
05/19/2013                   MADISON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN WEST OF EARLHAM. 2 TO 3 POLLS
            SNAPPED. SHED BLOWN OVER WITH ABOUT 30 SMALL PIECES OF
            ROOF SPREAD ACROSS FIELD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
828 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     TORNADO          2 SE GRUNDY CENTER      42.34N 92.75W
05/19/2013                   GRUNDY             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ASSISTANT TAMA COUNTY EM REPORTED THAT GRUNDY COUNTY
            DISPATCH HAS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND. GRUNDY COUNTY
            REQUESTED ASSISTANCE FROM TAMA COUNTY.

&&

FBOKSA