Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
610 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH THIS MORNING. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE AROUND 15KFT SO LARGE
HAIL NOT MUCH OF A THREAT. WE COULD NOT GET MORE THAN HALF INCH
HAIL FROM STORMS ALL NIGHT BUT RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR WERE COMMON. WE ARE IN FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TODAY.
CURRENT CONVECTION IS A RESULT MODERATE INSTABILITY AS A SHORTWAVE
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING BUT ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA IS MOVING EAST AND OTHER STORMS AHEAD OF THIS LINE ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR. I
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I80 TO HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 4 PM FOR THIS CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE ACTIVE WEATHER
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL FOLLOW
SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO POSTED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FOR
LATER AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE WILL CONTINUE
TO CONTEND WITH A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A LOW LEVEL
JET AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE STATE. STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING FROM THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY BY MID
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH. IT WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL THEN TRANSITION INTO ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES
PLACING IOWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY KIND OF POP. COOLER
TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL LIFT TO THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR THROUGH 21Z.  KDSM AND KALO WILL BE THE MAIN TAF LOCATIONS
AFFECTED.  STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.  MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT
NORTH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AFFECTING KFOD...KMCW AND KALO.  MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS
WITH THE SAME THREATS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.  SFC FLOW WILL BE S TO
SE FROM 10-20KTS AND STRONGER IN STORMS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-
CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-GRUNDY-
HARDIN.

&&

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1048 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ073>075-081>086-092>097-251600-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-
RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1048 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IAZ037>039-044>050-057>062-070>072-251600-
HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-
MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-
ADAIR-MADISON-
1048 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>036-251600-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
1048 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NEAR THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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